Poll Results: American League Prediction

uh

Oakland. I'm sure the A's will win the poll, but still, i do think they are better than the Yankees. Rich Harden is one of the top 3 starters in the AL and he would shut the Yanks down for 1 or 2 games if necessary.

Actually, just put it this way. The A's put up 88 wins last year while having Dotel and DUrazo playing about a month, Crosby missing half the year, Harden missing 10+ starts, Kotsay ailing back (not a surprise, admittedly), Kendall becoming the worst hitter in baseball and Chavez having a sub 800 OPS and 7+ younguns in key positions. They added Bradley and Loaiza, have the best defense in baseball, arguably the best rotation, one of the top closers, and a dynamic lineup (possibly great if Swisher and Johnson improve a little, Chavez and Kendall revert back to form).

A's will be the best team in the Majors next year.

On the other hand: The Yanks are aging, they got no pitching. Pavano might bounce back, but RJ is gettign way old. Wang had a unreal K rate (low), Small was a one hit wonder, Mussina is not what he used to be etc etc etc. Imagine Sheffield sitting out 90 games, Posada breaking down and more. It could all potentially happen at once.

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dynamic lineup?

As a Yankee fan, I won't vote or make a comment regarding the series because it's both predictable and useless what I would think or say.

But... I do have issues with this comment.

How exactly do the A's have a dynamic lineup? They have no legitimate leadoff, 3, or 4 hitters on their team. They have no speed, and those who have it don't use it. They have league average power, at best. What exactly am I missing? If the A's have a dynamic lineup, I can't imagine what the Yankees are.
Can Rich Harden stay healthy before we put him in the top 3 in the AL? Frankly, I'd be surprised if he was healthy all year. Obviously, he has talent, but personally, I'd take at least Santana, Halladay, and Felix before him.

by jc3 on Dec 30, 2005 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how do you spell

myopic, , , ,could be a dynamic lineup if everyone has career years

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 30, 2005 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm being a homer i admit it

It's not dynamic, it could be top 4 in the AL. If Swisher and Johnson improve, the A's could have 6/9 starters with an 800+ OPS. Perhaps 5/9, we don't know if Kotsay will be healthy enough to perform consistently.

No legit leadoff? Well, what about when Kendall was consistentlly putting up OBP's near 400? And if he doesn' come back to that, what about Ellis, who had an 865 OPS (385 OBP) last year?

No 3 or 4 hitter? You don't call Chavez at least one of these? He averages 30 homers and 100 rbi's over his career. Career OPS: 848. Just because the Yankee's could buy him as their 8th place hitter doesn't turn him into a worse htiter. Call him a 4 hitter.

The A's lack of a 3 hitter is well known though. They are hoping Bobby Crosby can develop into one, and he showed many signs of that before injuries intervened again. I think he'll OPS between 830-860 next year. Of course, if they could just hurry up and sign Frank Thomas, this problem would be solved.

Despite the A's offensive shortcomings, they finished sixth in the AL in RS, 3 behind 5th place Toronto. Throw in Bradley who essentially replaces Hatteberg (sub 700 OPS) and the lineup is already better.

Here is there projected lineup and what i consider to be conservative predictions:

Ellis- 810 OPS
Kotsay- 770 OPS (Probable that his back will flare
Bradley- 820
Chavez- 830
Crosby-820
Johnson-810
Payton-750
Swisher- 760
Kendall-680

As for Harden: I think the injury problems aren't/wont be chronic. Harden dislocated his left shoulder so many times that he finally had surgery this offseason on it. It likely had an effect on his mechanics because he was trying to compensate for it. We'll see. Already calling Hernandez the top 3 in the AL? Let him get some more experience at least.

I realize my previous comment was pretty homerish, but please include your thoughts and opinions.Knowledgeable baseball talk is always good.

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Comments

I will amend what I said to "below average" cleanup hitter when referring to Chavez. I still believe that on a good offensive team, Mark Ellis/Mark Kotsay and Milton Bradley/Bobby Crosby are far from good 1 & 3 options, but Chavez is a legitimate offensive player. He is more of a #5 hitter in a good lineup, but your point is well taken. However, he MUST do better than the 269/329/466 he put up last year before I call him at least an average option in the 4 spot. After further review of all 30 teams, he's at least in the 12-20 range of 4 hitters, but teams like the Yanks, Red Sox, etc. have multiple options that can be a legitimate cleanup hitter, so the numbers are a little skewed as far as team-by-team is concerned. I would hardly consider him a dangerous 4 hitter, and certainly, as a Yankee fan, he does not instill any fear in me when he comes to the plate.

Actually, no one in that lineup scares anyone. Their offense doesn't really compare to the Red Sox, Yanks, Indians, and Rangers, plus Toronto has improved their team more than Oakland has offensively this offseason. They are in the mix with Anaheim, Tampa, and the White Sox as far as offenses are concerned, just about league average. I'm not saying they are a bad offensive team, but to call them dynamic to possibly great is a major stretch.

I can see why there's a debate over Felix and Harden. It's just a preference. Felix, to me, will probably be the 2nd best starter in the AL this year behind Santana. Harden, if healthy, will certainly challenge the top 5, but I have less confidence that he will stay healthy vs. Felix. I definitely could be wrong, though...

by jc3 on Dec 31, 2005 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for responding

The Red Sox and Yanks having several 4 hitters does skew it, but you are definitely right that Chavez must revert back to his career 850 OPS to regain his luster. He doesn't instill fear in anyone because of his inconsistency, which, as an A's fan, is extremely frustrating. In 04 he was on the right track (898 OPS) and had it all going. He finished with 29 homers despite missing 6 weeks with a broken wrist (HBP by Dumb-asso Marte). Everyone expected him to dominate this year but it didn't happen. If he can live up to his potential he will be top 5 3B's in the game.

The offense as a whole: I agree, they don't compare with the Yanks, BoSox and Rangers. The Indians IMO are one tier below that, with possibly the Jays joining them. THen one tier below that there is the A's, Angels etc. But i can easily see the A's scoring 820-850 runs just based on the fact that Hatteberg is gone, and presumably normal health. Bradley helps, and the possible improvements from rookies and career form from veterans, it could happen.

The A's lineup still wouldn't be on the upper tier though because they don't exactly have any star hittters, they are more compiled of solid hitters with 800-850 OPS'.

As for the Felix preference, it's completely understandeable. But one must be worried about him as well, as he's just 19.

by ohad on Dec 31, 2005 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Homerism at its best

Great way to show your homerism. How about the most obvious one with Oakland? They choke in the play-offs.

by albo4lyfe on Dec 30, 2005 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure many will disagree but

I still belive the Playoffs are a crap shot of health at the time an luck.

A's are younger and deeper (presently) but Yankees will buy what they need

by novaoakland on Dec 30, 2005 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the Yanks do break down...

...as ohad posits, they likely wouldn't make the postseason at all. So I guess if you have to predict and outcome for this matchup, you have to assume that both teams are (relatively) healthy and effective. (And I'd also point out that ohad's scenario assumes most things go right for the A's and wrong for the Yankees.)

That said, I think a matchup such as this is pretty much a coinflip. But I'd probably take the Yankees because I believe they have a better lineup, while conceding that the A's likely have the better rotation (though the Loaiza signing doesn't impress me much).

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Dec 30, 2005 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

The Yanks get by 3-2, as free agent signee Roger Clemens picks up wins in games 1 and 5.

A's lineup scares no one. Chavez is their best player and he has regressed. Who else is going to pick up the offensive slack? Durazo? Kotsay? Payton? Kendall? Crosby? Swisher? None of them would scare me in the least. The A's will depend heavily on their pitching.

by ScottAZ on Dec 30, 2005 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If someone has the time

please post the starting lineups and potential playoff rotations. That should start a nice point by point comparison of the teams. Sorry, I'm at work, or I would...

by akk99 on Dec 30, 2005 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My roster

C-
Jorge Posada is a better hitter than Jason Kendall
but they are both overpaid.

1B-
Jason Giambi is better than Dan Johnson.

2B-
Robinson Cano will be better than any cipher the A's put out there (Ginter/Ellis). Remember Tony Pena (2004 AL Manager of the Year) was brought in as the 1st base coach to help work with Cano.

SS-
Jeter (2 Gold Gloves) is better than the walking medical report Bobby Crosby.

3B-
A-Rod with his 2 MVP's and 2 straight years of being the AL 3rd baseman in the All Star Game is better than Chavez who cannot even beat out Melvin Mora for a spot on the All Star Team.

OF-
Sheffield, Damon & Matsui v.s. Payton, Kotsay & Bradley.

The Yankees have a superior outfield in terms of power & overall ability. The A's are better in terms of outfield defense but Payton was a 4th outfielder in Boston, Kotsay is another injury risk and the 1 million dollar question will be if Bradley can destroy the clubhouse chemistry before he gets injured and spends another half a season on the DL.

Bullpen-Yankees reloaded with Farnsworth, Meyers, Villone & Dotel to go with Rivera who is a future HOF coming off a fantastic season last year.

A's are also very good with Street, Dushester (or however you spell it) & maybe Jairo Garcia but in the playoffs experiance counts and the Yankees have it.

The only area the A's are better is the rotation and it's not a landslide. Zito may not be around by next years playoffs so take him out of it.
Loiaza is overrated and overpaid, Harden is an ace, Haren and Blanton are very good.

Johnson switched leagues last year so you have to think he will be better in 06. Mussina is fading but he can give you 12-15 wins if he's healthy. Chacon was great after coming over from the Rockies and there is no reason to think he cannot keep it up. Small was a flash in the pan and might be better in the pen. Wang & Pavano round out the rotation and are both average/above average.
Remember with a lineup like the Yankees have they don't need 5 ace's, they need 5 pitchers who can keep them in the games. Also a deeper bullpen will mean less innings for Johnson & Mussina keeping them fresh.
Also since this is the playoffs would you honestly pick any pitcher besides Mussina in a big game situation?

"Nice doing buisness with you" Kevin Towers said to Josh Daniels 12/20/05

by colinadam on Dec 30, 2005 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2B and SS... Pitching

First.... you are way wrong on 2B and it is not close. Cano is not anywhere near as good as Ellis and if ellis were to break down he would not be as good as Antonio Perez.

SS. I will give you Jeter as a proven clutch post season guy but his defense is a joke and those mentioned those gold gloves are a joke.

The rest of the positions you can have because your pitching Starting and RP is not even close to the Caliber of the A's.

The Yankees have done little to improve that 4.52 team ERA while the A's have improved the 3.69 ERA.

Not saying the A;s are favorites but you anaylsis is off. IMO

by novaoakland on Dec 30, 2005 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A's fan perspective

C - Agreed, Posada is better.

1B - Sure, Giambi is better if healthy. But Dan Johnson isn't a negative for the A's. He had a very solid rookie season.

2B - Strong disagreement. Ellis last year hit .316/.384/.477. Cano was .297/.320/.458. 64 points of OBP and a SLG advantage is not a small lead for Ellis. Most people didn't notice Ellis last year - he really should've been the comeback player of the year.

3B - Eric Chavez may be a great player, and he is, but yes, ARod is the best.

SS - Jeter, but it's closer than you think. It's not inconcievable that Crosby could have a better year - but I concede that there are some serious health concerns.

OF - Sheffield over Payton/Swisher, sure. I'd rather have Kotsay over Damon. And Matsui over Bradley. Bradley does have a lot of upside, but man, what a risk.

Rotation, though, is the other place I disagree with you - I don't think it's as close as you think.

Harden is an Ace, and all reports are that he's fully recovered. He actually came back briefly in September and pitched some in relief, before the Angels took the division. I wouldn't consider him signficantly more injury risk than a 40+ year old Randy Johnson, and I'd be a bit surprised if he didn't have a better year.

Let's just compare ERA+ from last year:
Harden: 177
Zito: 116
Haren: 120
Blanton: 127
Loaiza: 105

Johnson: 117
Mussina: 101 (98 last year, so it's not a 1-year blip)
Small: 139
Chacon: 133
Pavano: 93 (a couple of better blips. Um, see Loaiza for a very similar pattern.)
Wang: 111

Factor in age, and you expect the A's to get better more than the Yankees. I think those are some significant gaps. ERA+ is park adjusted.

Also, in 2005, Oakland scored 772 runs, to NY's 886. Oakland allowed 658, to NY's 789. These teams were substantially similar in 2005 to what they are now (both modestly improved, I'd say), and their run differentials (114 to 97) were similar, with the advantage Oakland. The position by position comparison is misleading (though fun) - Oakland more than made up for the offensive shortfall with pitching last year, and that factors in the massive injury issues.

So, in long, I think these teams are very close on paper. I hope we really do play each other in October!

by kirbyk on Dec 30, 2005 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cano

I agree with some of your points but Cano is better than a lot of people make him out to be.
He is younger than Ellis and will get personal training from Tony Pena to improve. Yeah Ellis has a better OBP but next year the Yankees will not need Cano to hit in the number 2 slot so it doesn't matter what Cano's OBP is next year as long as he hits for a decent average with some more pop and fields the position well.

Factoring in age yeah the Yankees are older but Kotsay, Chavez & Payton are not exactly spring chickens either.
No injury concerns from any of the Yankee position players either unlike the A's.
Jeter, A-Rod, Sheffield, Matsui & Damon have all been healthy going into this year.

As for the rotation do you think Zito will be around for the playoffs with Oakland? I honestly don't think so and if you replace him with another pitcher their rotation effectivness goes down.
I think that Wang will get better (he missed some time with an injury last year), Pavano can go nowhere but up and if Chacon has an ERA under 3 next year for the Yankees for an entire season he could be a difference maker.

I will give you that Ellis is better than Cano and the A's rotation is better but I still cannot see the A's beating the Yankees.

"Nice doing buisness with you" Kevin Towers said to Josh Daniels 12/20/05

by colinadam on Dec 30, 2005 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zito

Yeah, but we don't know what they'll get for Zito if they trade him. It could be offensive help, it could be prospects, who knows? It seems too hard to count him out a priori.

by kirbyk on Dec 30, 2005 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

still another irrelevant point

I think Cano is a good pure hitter. But Ellis had much better stats. When you say "they don't need him to have a high OBP", that may be true, but were talking about how good players are, not how their qualities fit the team.

It looks every day more and more like Zito will be with the A's to start the season. And barring total suckiness in the first half, the A's will have him throughout the season. There is no way they are in contention and trade him.

Wang might get better, but he had a pretty low ERA for his peripherals.

There is no way Chacon has an ERA under 3 next year.

Bradley and Kotsay are the only ones with actual injury problems. Crosby broke a rib by getting hit by a pitch and broke an ankle by sliding into home plate. Those are fluke injuries. Swisher dislocated his shoulder by running into the wall trying to make a catch. These aren't chronich injuries.

Uh, Chavez just turned 28 years old. That's still young.The A's have like 5 players over 30. Kendall, Payton, Kotsay (30), Calero (30), Witasick, Loaiza. Am i missing anyone?

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chacon

Chacon came over from the Rockies with a 4.09 ERA. With the Yankees and the first time pitching in the AL he went 7-3 with a sub 3.00 ERA.
The 7 Teams he beat
CLE
LAA
TEX
OAK
TOR (3 Times)

His 3 AL loses
BOS
SEA
CHW

I think it's possible for him to have a sub 3 ERA for a full season as a Yankee but I think maybe a sub 3.50 is more realistic.

The 7 teams that he beat all were pretty good last year and 3 of them were fighting for playoff spots/positioning. Not a fluke performance.

"Nice doing buisness with you" Kevin Towers said to Josh Daniels 12/20/05

by colinadam on Dec 30, 2005 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chacon

Colin,

You need to face a bit of reality here.

First of all, a sample size of a dozen or so games is extremely small. So when you say it wasn't a fluke, I think you could be wrong.
You should be expecting a 4.50 ERA from Chacon next year, and if it's closer to 4 you should be extremely happy.
It's great to be a fan of a team, but I think it's time for a bit of a reality check.

by GregJP on Dec 30, 2005 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

career ERA: 4.9

i find it hard to believe that he will have an ERA under 3.5 even. Low K rate combined with bad yankee defense is not a good thing.

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Park Factor

He was in Coors though.

4.20-4.50 is my guess with his strikeout numbers. They are low, but last year they were below his career average. I'm not sure if that's because he was mainly a starter, or if he can up those K numbers again.

He has been reasonably good at limiting BAA (career .255) despite the average strikeout numbers.

by limozeen on Dec 30, 2005 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Some of your arguments don't make sense.

"2B-
Robinson Cano will be better than any cipher the A's put out there (Ginter/Ellis). Remember Tony Pena (2004 AL Manager of the Year) was brought in as the 1st base coach to help work with Cano."

In case you missed it, Mark Ellis OPS'ed 860 and plays Gold Glove defense (he'll get it now that Hudson is in the NL). It's funny how you cite Tony Pena as someone who will help Cano play defense. It may be true, but the fact that he was AL MOY in 03 is completely irrelevant.

"SS-
Jeter (2 Gold Gloves) is better than the walking medical report Bobby Crosby."

Haha. Yes, he's plenty better on offense. We all know Jeter winning 2 GG's is a joke. Looks like i'm not the only homer. Oops forgot that he's Captain Intangible, i take it all back. Crosby is much better on defense.

"3B-
A-Rod with his 2 MVP's and 2 straight years of being the AL 3rd baseman in the All Star Game is better than Chavez who cannot even beat out Melvin Mora for a spot on the All Star Team."

Well, yes, A-Rod is the best 3B in baseball, maybe the best player. Another yankee fan thing to say though about Mora. Remember, it's the fans who vote. This is why Scott Rolen was voted as the NL starter for playing 2 months.

"Bullpen-Yankees reloaded with Farnsworth, Meyers, Villone & Dotel to go with Rivera who is a future HOF coming off a fantastic season last year.

A's are also very good with Street, Dushester (or however you spell it) & maybe Jairo Garcia but in the playoffs experiance counts and the Yankees have it."

Shows how much you know about the A's. Jairo Garcia has pitched in like 6 games for the A's period. Street is the second best closer behind Rivera, i'll obviously give you that. I think Dotel will be great, but who knows what will happen with him. Duchscherer on the other hand finished with a 2.21 ERA while pitching 85 innings. Kiko Calero had a 3.23 ERA. Jay Witasick had a 2.85 ERA. This is much better than Meyers (Loogy), Villone ( who somehow pulled a 2.45 ERA out of his butt), Dotel (who knows how he will come back) and Farnsworth (if you're talking about Bradley blowing up, how about Farnsworth exploding the first time Yanks fans boo him off the mound?

"The only area the A's are better is the rotation and it's not a landslide. Zito may not be around by next years playoffs so take him out of it.
Loiaza is overrated and overpaid, Harden is an ace, Haren and Blanton are very good."

First off, the idea that Loaiza (if he is) overpaid is irrelevant. If we want overpaid, i could point to your whole roster. Just in the rotation there is Mussina, Johnson, Pavano (and Wright in MR). "Zito may not be around by next years playoffs so take him out of it"??? Are you kidding me? That means nothing, but OK. Harden's better than Johnson, Zito's better than Moose, Haren's better than Pavano, Blantons better than Wang, Loaiza's better than Chacon. "Mussina is fading but he'll give you 12-15 wins". More BS. My great grandfather could give them 12-15 wins pitching from his grave with that offense. Basically irrelevant. Well, i guess you agree that COlon shoulda won the CY then.

As you saw, pitching wins championships. As you saw, buying offense won't win you championships. If experience counts so much in the playoffs, then why did the Yanks and their team of aging veterans lose?

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FYI

I thought the PLAYERS voted the All Star reserves.
The fans only vote the starters. The PLAYERS think Mora is a better 3rd baseman than Chavez.
Fact is Chavez is one of the worst 3rd baseman in the majors at the plate early in the season. It takes him longer than a '74 Pinto to get going.

At least the Yankees got to the playoffs. Oakland couldn't get in even though they play in the weakest AL division.

Funny how you rattle off the ERA's of all the relievers but don't mention Farnsworth's sub 3.00 ERA.

Last year with a decimated rotation that had to turn to Hideo Nomo for some starts and with Bernie/Melky/Womack in center they won their division and got to the playoffs. They rebuilt their bullpen and got the best leadoff hitting CF in the AL. I admit Damon has a noodle for an arm and will be worthless in a few years but you HAVE to admit that they have improved.

What have the A's done? Signed Loiaza & traded for Bradley. Those 2 things may push them into the playoffs but that's about all it will do.

If you guys need Frank Thomas to bail you out your in trouble.

I don't even like the Yankees, I just dislike the A's enough to back the Yankees.

"Nice doing buisness with you" Kevin Towers said to Josh Daniels 12/20/05

by colinadam on Dec 30, 2005 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What?

The Yankee's managed to get to the playoffs despite, gasp, using Womack/Berny/Melky in CF? So the rest of the 2000000000 million doesn't matter?

Farnsworth had a sub 3 ERA, that is correct. 2 years ago Milton Bradley had a 900+ OPS. Both are known to have anger problems. That was my point.

Mora/Chavez: Yes, Chavez' every year early season slump lasted 2 months this year, that's why he wans't voted it. I wouldn't have voted him in either. All-Star is based on half year performance, not full year performance, so it's already flawed.

All the A's did was win 88 games with 2 second year pitchers, a rookie pitcher, a rookie closer, a rookie RF, a rookie 1B, a second year SS. It's not that Oakland couldn't get in despite the weak division. It's that Oakland managed to win 88 games despite their own decimating injuries (worse than the Yanks), and managed to win 88 in their re-building year.

What have the A's done? Well aside from improving the rotation depth (which they needed), they got a potential all star. That's something. They also gained 1 year experience from each of their younguns and full health. They are in better shape than almost any team in baseball.

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lineups

A's Lineup, maybe?
Ellis
Kotsay
Bradley
Chavez
Crosby
Johnson
Swisher
Payton
Kendall

I think that's their starters, how they mix up the lineup might actually be quite different, they seemed to keep Kendall batting first for a ridiculously long time last year.

A's Playoff Rotation
Harden
Zito
Haren
Blanton/Loiaza

Yankee's lineup
Damon
Jeter
Rodriguez
Sheffield
Giambi
Matsui
Posada
Williams
Cano

Yankee's Playoff Rotation
Johnson
Mussina
Pavano
Chacon

by Nick Schulte on Dec 30, 2005 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yankee's Rotation

will probably look different after Johnson and Mussina. Maybe including Wang or Small or Wright or a trade. Also, are they going to bat Giambi 4th to break up the lefties?

by Nick Schulte on Dec 30, 2005 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

At this point and time, this is a very pointless discussion topic. Talking about possible postseason series when the season itself is 3 months away? I know John has his book, but c'mon.

by captoats85 on Dec 30, 2005 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You know what is pointless

Complaining about something you have no control over.

No one forced you to read this subject matter. The rest of us enjoy it so let us have our "pointless fun"

by novaoakland on Dec 30, 2005 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the other post

why complain about this topic? Just ignore it and read the one's you want...

by akk99 on Dec 31, 2005 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

let's stop it with Tony Pena.

TONY PENA WAS A CATCHER. If a catcher is trying to teach you how to play second base, you are in tremendous trouble, unless the guy's name happens to be Craig Biggio. So, let's put aside "Pena teaches Cano how to play 2B" type stuff on one side, and "Crosby hits like Miguel Tejada" type stuff on the other side, and look at what is likely. This is assuming that young players get better and old players get worse, but is not assuming that young players all hit their peaks simultaneously in 2006 and old players all suddenly suck.

C: Posada/Kendall - Medium-sized edge Yanks.
1B: Giambi/Swisher - Medium edge Yanks.
2B: Ellis/Cano - Small edge A's. I don't think Ellis is really a 850 OPS hitter; I expect him to decline at bat, and Cano to improve. Ellis is the better fielder, though.
SS: Jeter/Crosby - Medium edge Yanks. However you might rate Jeter, Crosby has not yet proven that he is on whatever level that might be.
3B: A-Rod/Chavez - Medium edge Yanks.
LF: Matsui/Payton - Large edge Yanks.
CF: Damon/Kotsay - Even.
RF: Sheffield/Bradley - I'd say medium edge Yanks; this could be "small edge" or even "even" depending on Bradley's health and mood.
DH: B. Williams/D. Johnson - Large edge A's.
SP: R. Johnson/Zito - Even.
SP: Mussina/Harden - Medium edge A's.
SP: Wang/Haren - Medium edge A's.
SP: Pavano, Small or Chacon/Blanton or Loaiza - Small edge A's.
CL: Rivera/Street - Even.
Middle relief: Medium edge A's.

By my math, the Yanks are favored. And to make it worse, the A's advantages in the back of the rotation and middle relief are exactly the kind of things that matter less in a short series.

But of course, they don't play the games on paper; I expect at least the A's to make more moves before the season starts; and the whole thing's a bit silly.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Dec 30, 2005 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was with you till I saw...

"CL: Rivera/Street - Even."

Let's see here, on one side we have arguably the greatest clutch closer ever vs what would be a second year closer with no MLB postseason experience. Granted Street's one year was magnificent and he most likely will maintain it. But Rivera HAS maintained that, and is coming off a year that many thought was CY Young worthy.

by williethekid20 on Dec 30, 2005 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Street had a phenomenal year, but Rivera's was still better. He's arguably the greatest closer period, so to say even is a stretch.

And that's coming from King Homer.

by ohad on Dec 30, 2005 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think street had the best year

he will ever have, those numbers were just ridiculous. That said MO is not exactly a kid and not exactly crafty. He dominates with Nasty stuff. If that cutter starts breaking less often then he will fall a part quickly.

by novaoakland on Dec 30, 2005 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pena helps how?

I was wondering if I was imagining things when i saw the comments about Pena. Is Tony going to teach Cano how to make snap throws from his knees?

Policeman: Sir, are you classified as human? Korben Dallas: Ah, negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by finman on Jan 3, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Judging by the rosters

The Yanks have a sizeable edge in lineup, and a sizeable disadvantage in pitching (sp's in particular). With that said, I could see Johnson, Mussina, and the others, having enough to shutdown the A's lineup and allowing the yankee hitters to win the series against the A bullpen.

by akk99 on Dec 31, 2005 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

Ellis with a small edge over Cano? What a joke that is. Ellis is not only going to be a much more valuble hitter than Cano next season, but he's a GG calibre 2b while Cano is almost as bad as Soriano.

The A's have an absolutely huge advantage in pitching, just as large as the Yankees advantage in offense.

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Dec 31, 2005 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The point is win....

If you have the best defense and the best pitching staff you only need an average offense to win ballgames. That's why Beane wanted Bradley and Loaiza, to improve the defense and pitching.

It doesn't matter is you win 6437-765 or 0.73-0, a win is a win, with that kind of pitching and defense the A's only need to score 4 runs per game and the current lineup (IF helthy) can do that on daily basis.

That's why the Yankees need all the offense they can get because their pitching staff isn't getting younger or better for that matter and after A'rod the defense is a joke.

The A's will have the best defense in the OF in MLB and isn't even close 3 of the best CF playing at the same time and the InF will be one of the best if not the best with Chavez, Crosby, Ellis and Swisher with this defense the already good pitcing staff will look even better (last year Harden 2.53 ERA and 4 SP under 4.00 with an average defense)

After 100 years of baseball we can say that pitching and defense wins World series, just ask Ozzie Guillen, I think this is the best A's team in years...

by Olijerez77 on Dec 31, 2005 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts on this matchup!

Hello everyone,

I think it would be hard for anyone to match the Yankee lineup because of the money they spend on it. This includes Oakland.

However, I believe Oakland's pitching is much stronger, especially from a starting standpoint.

If Randy Johnson pitches well, he helps to neutralize that advantage, but being 41 (doesn't he turn 42 this year,) how much longer can he keep pitching at the level that we have seen from him? That's a lot of pressure on him, on a staff that seems weak otherwise.

Mike Mussina might still get you 12-15 wins, but he's faltered in the playoffs off and on for the last few years and I don't think you can count on him throwing a gem or even keeping the Yankees in the game - it's questionable what you will get from him - if he's your 2 or 3, that puts the Yankees at a severe disadvantage, especially if he is matched up with Harden or Zito (provided he's still there.) He doesn't even outdo Haren or Blanton - at best, he matches them or maybe outdoes them if he really is like the Mussina of 8 years ago, which only shows up in a handful of his starts nowadays.

Pavano and Wright may rebound a bit, but neither is really an ace and neither has extensive playoff experience (yes, Pavano had the one nice postseason in 2003, while Wright had a good 1997 and 2004(?) with the Braves but both of them had arm problems since those times and neither is sure to give you consistent quality starts, especially in N.Y.)

Wang is a nice option at #5 and could perhaps enter the playoff rotation if he pitches well enough and others falter, but to expect him to pick up all the projected slack is all too much for a guy who may regress a bit this year because his peripherals didn't match his low strikeout rate.

The A's with Zito (if he's still there,) Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Loaiza in their rotation seems much stronger to me.

The bullpen is closer, mostly because Rivera has been so good and Street is not playoff-tested, plus Rivera arguably has better stuff than Street.

However, despite the Yankee bullpen signings, it's still debatable how much stronger and reliable the Yankee bullpen is. Farnsworth has a great arm, but has never had consistent command and always seems to falter in critical moments. Mike Myers can get lefties out, but not much else. Proctor, Small, and Sturtze have their moments, but are they really elite bullpen guys? I don't believe they are.

I don't think this group will match the efficiency and ability of the Nelson-Stanton-Rivera trio of the late-90s; they may be better than last year, but I still don't think the Yankee bullpen is a real strength, outside of Mariano Rivera.

I think the A's bullpen is deeper, even if they don't have as strong or as an experienced a closer.

Duchscherer is probably as good as any of the Yankees bullpen guys (yes, Farnsworth throws harder, but isn't as consistent with his command nor has ever pitched on a consistent basis in NY.) Calero seems to be as good as any of the Yankee setup guys as well.

If Juan Cruz can handle the bullpen role, he can match Farnsworth's arm and stuff. Saarloos can serve as a capable long man.

Presumably, Street could also get better as he's young enough to do so.

Therefore, I think the bullpen matchup is pretty evenly matched, maybe even in the A's favor, outside of the closer. That's the only reason I could see the Yankees having a better bullpen (I'm not convinced about Farnsworth and Myers can only get lefties out - so I don't think he's an outstanding sign, only a decent sign.)

Therefore, the real contest will be whether the A's pitching can shut down the Yankees' offense.

The Angels were able to do it last year, and that was pretty much without Colon. Plus, the Yankee offense is more prone to the strikeout and being shut down by good pitching than they were during their "Golden Era" of the late 90s.

Therefore, I predict the A's would have enough pitching to shut down the Yankee offense enough, plus provide just enough offense to overcome the Yankees' weaker staff and win in 5 games.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great 2006! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 31, 2005 9:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

with an average defense

Well the A's led baseball in defensive efficiency last season.

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 1, 2006 2:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I know that blee...

but for half year the A's were average in defense, they had Eric "The Butcher" Byrnes/Bobby Kielty platoon in LF, Scutaro in SS, Swisher in RF and Hatty in 1B.

Can you imagine how good the defense will be with a full year of Crosby in SS and Payton in LF, Bradley in RF and Swisher in 1B?

by Olijerez77 on Jan 1, 2006 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Most likely, it would be improved!

Hello everyone,

Those replacements look like upgrades to me:

Byrnes had good range, but don't know how consistent he was; Kielty never had great range in my opinion, decent at best; Scutaro was OK, nothing spectacular, Swisher has a good arm, but I don't think he had a lot of range in RF, and Hatteberg was decent, but nothing great at 1B either.

Crosby at SS should be above-average, Payton has good range, as does Bradley; both have decent to good arms too.

Swisher - did he play 1B at Ohio State? I'm not sure, but he can probably handle the position, maybe even be above-average.

I would think the A's defense would improve at least a little, if not a lot. So certainly the team defense should be at least a tad above average to significantly above-average (especially the OF defense - that's where I think the greatest improvement in defense will be, which is a good thing since McAfee Coliseum is quite large.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great 2006! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 1, 2006 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs