No because he's a Cincinnati Red.  I don't have much faith in that organization for developing talent.

to Leo Mazzonne and he'll be an All-Star.

I remember people raving about his slider as being a true dominant-level pitch, a definite 80. I've very rarely seen him capable of throwing it around the plate with confidence, though. He always looks tentative with it, throws it in the dirt a lot. When he actually gets the nerve to throw it over the plate, he gets way too much zone and it ends up 400 feet away.

I don't think he pitches off of his still-impressive fastball enough. He gets down in far too many counts and lacks the consistency in his secondary pitch to fool hitters. I'll give him a 35 percent chance of figuring things out and becoming the type of pitcher that people thought he could be, since it doesn't look like he's declined in terms of stuff. Getting out of a stadium that destroys a pitcher for even slight mistakes would help Wagner, certainly. Of course, that leaves 65 percent for my poll choice of enduring in his role as 8th inning punching bag.

On a side note, great addition to the rotation. I see lots of good discussions stemming from this feature.

After giving up on him in my BBW league, I hope he tanks :D

Guys like this seem to have equal chances of flaming out or eventually learning what they need to do to succeed, even if not to the degree once expected. My guess is he bounces around for the next 6-8 years showing occasional flashes but being wildly inconsistent, and then when he's about 30-32 having a 20% chance of turning into a star.

BTW this is a great feature, it seems like there is lots of information on prospects and on big-leaguers, but that once a prospect hits the fringe of being in the majors they are largely ignored.

Once players learned to lay off that slider, and he consistently pitched from behind, he became a mediocre pitcher at best.  Check out his whip's.  He needs to learn to get ahead in the count, THEN throw that slider.  A year in AAA would do him some good.

First, I understand the concerns that many have here about what the Reds organization has done in past years to hurt their farm system (dating back to the Marge Schott days, when she didn't want to pay scouts to just "sit around and watch baseball games.)  

The last decent starting pitcher to develop from their system was Brett Tomko.  Before that, probably Tom Browning.  You'd like to see more than that in a 20-year span.  

However, if they have developed anything during this span of time, their system has been known for its relief pitchers.  With the exception of the past year or two, Cincinnati has historically had a strong, reliable bullpen which has been strongly supplemented by it's farm system.  

I believe he has more hope to rebound in the Reds organization than in many other organizations out there.  They should send him down to the minors for a full AAA season.  He was rushed WAY too quickly in 2003.  This was the Reds first season in their new ballpark, and the Reds promise to have a strong season was quickly a disaster.  Wagner was promoted to the bigs, in part, as an attempt to put fans in the seats and show  a glimpse of the future.  

I was at Wagner's first major league appearance.  He mowed down the heart of Houston's batting lineup, including a strikeout of Bagwell if memory serves me.  A very exciting inning in a very abissmal year.  Was this kid the closer of the future for the Cincinnati Reds?  

Having said all that, in my humble opinion, I feel he will go the wayside of Matt Anderson.  His only hope is a full year of AAA to learn how to pitch.  He can strike out the heart of Houston's order when no one has seen him pitch before.  But now the scouting report is out, and he needs to adjust.  Without the adjustments, he'll be out of baseball by 2009.  

Statistically, it is very rare for college/minor league relievers to become closers in the majors.

The baseball forecaster has a good writeup about this and I won't repeat it here, but it makes sense.  Wagner lacks experience.  The only way to get experience is to pitch often, which means that he should get as many six inning starts in the minors as he can before worrying about closing.  Chad Cordero is an exception, but Ryan needs to learn how to pitch.