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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

My Grading System

I've received a few questions lately about my grading system. Here is what the grades mean.

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

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Thanks John.
I was wondering exactly that.  Would some of the readers here just remind me of the Grade A prospects over, say, the last couple of years?  Was David Wright one?  Albert Pujols?  Jason Bay?  Felix Hernandez.

Don't worry.  I'm going to buy the book, but, I live far away from the US and don't want to buy John's 2001 edition to see how things worked out.

by kmdarcy @ Minor League Ball on Dec 27, 2005 6:55 PM EST reply actions  

Pujols
I don't think that Pujols was actually an A prospect.  I think virtually none of the minor league evaluators foresaw him becoming what he is today.

by GregJP on Dec 27, 2005 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

wrigth
David Wright: Grade B+ in 2003 book, Grade A- in 2004 book.

by John Sickels on Dec 27, 2005 7:03 PM EST reply actions  

felix
King Felix: B+ in 2004, Grade A in 2005.

by John Sickels on Dec 27, 2005 7:05 PM EST reply actions  

John
have you ever used a point system to rank players?  Just wondering.

by So Cal Bob on Dec 27, 2005 7:05 PM EST reply actions  

points
I have tinkered with stuff like that but I've never found anything I was satisfied with.

by John Sickels on Dec 27, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Pujols
John,

I stand corrected.  I guess I just remember him having no buzz at all the year he broke out his first year in the bigs.

by GregJP on Dec 27, 2005 7:06 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks guys
I'm excited for the book and I appreciate the prompt feedback.  

by kmdarcy @ Minor League Ball on Dec 28, 2005 7:24 AM EST reply actions  

Santos
John, can you comment on Sergio Santos, whom the Jays just received from the Diamondbacks?  Is he a guy that Jays fans can hope to see contributing in a few years, and is he likely to be an important contributor?  What position does he project as playing?

by okbluejays on Dec 28, 2005 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

grades
hi

I realize nothing will change but i really like how hockey futures rate players:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections.php

It combines potential and probability.

How is the +/-  work or is there not any specific classification for this one.

looking forward to the book!

by goggles pisano on Dec 28, 2005 5:21 PM EST reply actions  

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