out of nowhere pitcher

by taggartd on Dec 22, 2005 3:09 PM EST

every year there seems to be a pitcher that comes from mediocrity to have a cy young caliber year. like jon garland last yr, loaiza two years before that and etc. who do you think will be this years pitcher?
my personal choice is brett tomko, has the stuff and coming to a great enviornment for pitchers.
of course there is no real reasoning behind this, thats why the pitcher comes out of nowhere so there is no bad choices, i.e. no calling anyones choice lame.
so whos your choice?

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

hmm

I think Loaiza was almost unique in the history of the game.

Garland was different in that he combined luck (low BABIP) & improved command to accomplish what everyone always thought he could (& should). Brett Myers & John Patterson sort of fall into a similar category as far as 2005's surprises go.

Next year, I think Lackey & Lowry will continue to be good, and probably better. Also, wouldn't be surprised to see Ervin Santana put together a very solid season. Out of nowhere, seemingly, I like Claudio Vargas's chances.

by Azteca on Dec 22, 2005 3:31 PM EST reply actions

why i love baseball

Azteca, not meaning to pick on you, but every year there seems to be a guy (or 2) like Loaiza. Older, out of nowhere, and disappears again the following year. Alan Anderson. Steve Ontiveros. Bill Wegman. Jeff Robinson. Melido Perez. Ricky Bones.

Yeah, a couple of these guys are younger, but this was a very non-scientific-typically-poor-lazy-research-by-me, from the mid 80s to the mid 90s, AL only based on ERA. Does anybody under 30 even know Jeff Robinson???

It's easy to chuck the dart at a bunch of 25-year olds and say one's gonna break out. But it's that fluky, older pitcher out of nowhere that's the bear to pick.

I think 2005's version was Chris Carpenter. Yes, his 2004 was good, but his 2005 was pretty wacky. I love the guesses for Thomson, Lilly, and Padilla. I'm gonna toss Tomko out there.

(Limo, do you really know the Milton twins??? that'd be shweet. Blog spam is nauseating, but nice article. I'd like to recommend adding an injury factor to your formula)

"One year ago we knocked on the door. This year, we beat on the door. Next year, we're gonna kick the SOB in." - Bum

by bigfatdrunk on Dec 22, 2005 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

well, injuries change everything. All I was saying: Loaiza had no injury history, was a +5 era pitcher, and even now the only way to explain his Cy Young bid is his pickup of a cutter. Wha?

But you're right, seeing the rise of the much-maligned's is the fun of the game. Tomko? Fogg? Well, it could happen...

by Azteca on Dec 23, 2005 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

I'll Bite

How about Greinke?

Chan Ho Park? No particular reason. Just throwing a dart here, and I'll look like a genius if it ever really happens.

by rick on Dec 22, 2005 3:47 PM EST reply actions

I'd suggest

-Seo from the Mets (although he put up some stats last year).
-Kevin Brown
-Vincente Padilla
-John Thomson - whose put up nice stats, but never really put it all together. I could see him doing that for the Braves next year...

by akk99 on Dec 22, 2005 3:57 PM EST reply actions

breakout pitcher

someone on the braves, they always seem to pull something out of their hat in order to win the NL East, so maybe John Thompson. Id also look to guys in a salary drive the year before they reach free agency, like Ted Lilly. Maybe Sidney Ponson can figure things out in St. Louis.

by sanchez101 on Dec 22, 2005 4:05 PM EST reply actions

IMHO

Aaron Heilman of the Mets, if he's a starter.
Chris Young of the Padres.
Joaquin Benoit of the Rangers, if he's a starter.
Robinson Tejeda of the Phillies, if he's a starter.

I wrote an interesting article about this for a friend's blog, you can check it out:

http://twinstalk.blogspot.com/2005/09/fantasy-how-to-identify-breakout.html

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2005 4:06 PM EST reply actions

Of course, Heilman.

...but he's hardly a secret.

I like your McClung pick; he seems healthy, and maybe he can start to get that bb/9 rate under control: 5.1 in his 109+ innings last year.

Also, wish Benoit could find a new home. He's so high up in the zone, that too many of his flyballs turn into home runs in Arlington. Maybe he'll do in from Texas, though.

by Azteca on Dec 22, 2005 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

That's essentially how the formula works; identify pitchers with dominant stuff who are likely to improve their BB rates.

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2005 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

I'll take

David Bush. The Blue Jays didn't do a very good job with him last year, but I think he will do well with the Brewers. Having to not face the Red Sox (who crushed him last year in Boston) will help him as well.

by LAUndertakers on Dec 22, 2005 4:25 PM EST reply actions

Bush

As a Brewer fan, I hope you're right.

by andy 5 on Dec 22, 2005 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

Bush

I was going to say Bush. He's got a very solid future. What was Toronto thinking?

by grandslam on Dec 22, 2005 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

Bush

and Mike Maddux is excellent at cultivating raw guys

starring Alfonso Soriano as Vinny C in RFK part deux

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Dec 23, 2005 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

I'll call my pick lame

but how about Josh Fogg. He doesn't even have a job yet.

by doubledribble @ Minor League Ball on Dec 22, 2005 7:12 PM EST reply actions

I like his odds

in the right environment he could be a solid pitcher. Did it a couple of years ago with the Pirates, so could do it again. Especially pitching for his career.

3Rivers, United League of Moderate Gamers | Writer, Minor Details | Writer, Independent Thinking

by rockies73 on Dec 23, 2005 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

hmmm....

My 2006 version of Ontiveros, Wegman and others would be Brett Tomko and and I'll go out on a limb and say Ben Kozlowski in Cincy

by gashousegang on Dec 22, 2005 11:22 PM EST reply actions

How about

Brandon Claussen. He was a big time prospect coming through the Yankees, had an injury that took him out for the beginning of last season, and is finally healthy.

He's flyer material in the last round of a fantasy draft...

by akk99 on Dec 23, 2005 11:02 AM EST reply actions

Loaiza unique?

Loaiza was in his Age-31 year with a career ERA of around 4.50, and a K9 rate of under 5.5 the season he posted his 2003 stat line. Predicting these high-K young pitchers (Cabrera, Bush, Tejeda, Lackey) to "come out of nowhere" seems like a different question ("predict the timing of the expected breakout", maybe?).

Anyway, Fogg seems like a Loaiza-esque pick, with his career numbers of 4.75 ERA/4.74 K9 rate. But I'm going with Scott Downs, although he doesn't really have a job, and losing Hudson will probably hurt him significantly.

by BobbyMac on Jan 2, 2006 12:47 PM EST reply actions