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Ranks these talents

I have the following 11 minor leaguers and should only protect 5-6.  A simple ranking is appreciated and any comments will be more than welcome.  Not necessarily considering WHEN they will land in the show, but more or less their odds of being solid contributors once established.

Thanks in advance.

Chad Billingsley
Chuck James
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Yusmeiro Petit

Adam LaRoche
Ian Stewart
Joel Guzman
Lastings Milledge
Felix Pie
Hunter Pence

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

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my rates
Overall both pitchers and hitters, Billz is my #1.

1.) Chad Billingsley - stud
2.) Yusmeiro Petit - Livan Hernandez type, favorable stadium
3.) Chuck James - #s are filthy. There are other top pitching prospects who have better combined stuff & perf that I would have to rate ahead of James. But not in this group IMHO.
3.) Rich Hill - is the curveball enough to succeed?
5.) Homer Bailey - don't like Reds track record developing pitching. But ceiling is high.

1.) Ian Stewart - Scouts love him. Coors!
2.) Lastings Milledge - I'm rating his as CF. If Beltran pushes him to RF value drops a little.
3.) Joel Guzman - rated as RF
4.) Felix Pie - needs to work on plate discipline
5.) Andy LaRoche - ditto. Big HR season inflated by Vero.
6.) Hunter Pence - I can't get worked up over a college guy dominating the low-A SALLY. Atleast not in this strong of a group.

starring Alfonso Soriano as Vinny C in RFK part deux

by natsfan2005 on Dec 16, 2005 2:46 PM EST   0 recs

Petit
I play sim where peripherals matter most not stuff like Wins. But if this is fantasy baseball feel free to downgrade Petit a little as he's not likely to earn many wins for AAA FLA anytime soon.
starring Alfonso Soriano as Vinny C in RFK part deux

by natsfan2005 on Dec 16, 2005 2:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Scoresheet league
Thanks for the comments.  This is a Scoresheet league, so Wins, K's, etc. are not rated separately, but overal performance (ala sim) is most important.

by stello12 on Dec 16, 2005 3:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

My 6
Billingsley
Stewart
Milledge
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Joel Guzman

by ohad on Dec 16, 2005 2:53 PM EST   0 recs

Easy choices - here's the 6
Billingsley
Petit
James
Laroche
Stewart
Milledge
MelonvilleSports

by Melonville on Dec 16, 2005 3:08 PM EST   0 recs

Protect
Billingsley-1
Petit -2
Milledge -3
Pie-4
James -5
Guzman -6

by cubsfan2883 on Dec 16, 2005 3:09 PM EST   0 recs

Offense vs Pitching
Stewart
LaRouche
Guzman
Billingsley
Milledge
Petit
Pie

Watch out for Pence.  I thinking he way overrated.  Was too old for the league he was in.

by dmcclure on Dec 16, 2005 3:11 PM EST   0 recs

Six to keep
  1. Stewart
  2. Laroche (I am assuming you meant Andy)
  3. Joel Guzman
  4. Chad Billingsley
  5. Lastings Milledge
  6. Felix Pie
Just missed: Petit

You have a very strong list. Keep in mind I have never played in a scoresheet league before and I am not familiar with their scoring system, but this is how i would rank them.

by rhodehead on Dec 16, 2005 3:28 PM EST   0 recs

pitching and hitters
PITCHERS
  1. Yusmeiro Petit - only throws in the low 90's, but then again so does Pedro Martinez right now and it doesnt prevent him from miniscule ERA's.  Both guys are smart and wily pitchers with good secondary stuff and excellent control
  2. Chad Billinglsey - Control isnt is good than Petit, but better scouting reports and is also a very smart and hard working pitcher.  Last year the only questions were about his control and his changeup and he improved on both in 2005.  Really close with Petit, probably interchangable at #1.
  3. Chuck James - one of the top 3-5 lefties in the minors.  Numbers are insane, scouting reports less so, but you gotta trust the Braves on this one.  If they trade him his stock would drop a bit in my eyes.  The only reason he's behind Billingsley and Petit is age.
  4. Rich Hill - old at 25, but more ready to contribute than the guys ahead.  I dont like the control problems.  If he could be a more consitent groundball pitcher i could see him as a solid 2-3 type starter, but for now he looks more like a backend of the rotation guy.
  5. Homer Bailey - the benifit that James gets from being in the Braves organization works the opposite for Baily.  His ceiling might be as high as Billingsley's, but right now he gives up way too many walks, much more than Billingsley last year, and his hits/9 of 7.73 in low-A inst that great for a guy with supposedly great stuff.  Besides, how can you like a pitcher with the first name Homer.
HITTERS
  1. Joel Guzman - even though he's probably capable, he'll never see much time at SS in the majors.  But his bat is enough.  His power is top of the line and he quietly improved his plate discipline improved this year, in particular he took more walks.  Im not as worried about the K's because of his size, athleticism, and power.  Compare him to the minor league careers of Richie Sexon or Derrek Lee, two tall righthanded hitters.  He has the best chance of hitting 40+ homeruns in the majors.  He has some risk, but considering he's the same age as Stewart, but has 168 games at AA and Stewart has yet to even see AA, I think he's moved to fast to quickly to be that much of a risk.
  2. Lastings Milledge - He could easily be Carlos Beltran, or he could dissapoint us be just a really good leadoff hitter.  His performance is odd, sometimes he hits for power, sometimes he doesnt, sometimes he draws walks sometimes he doesnt.  But I think he might be one of the safest high-ceiling prospects in the game.  Milledge will probably have more defensive value than anyone on this list.
  3. Ian Stewart - He can really hit, I think he might be able to start opening day for Colorado in 2007.  But the guy has yet to see AA, and the two environment he's been in have been easy environments for hitters, Ashville is the best hitters park in the SAL, kinda like Vero Beach in the FSL, and the California League might be the best hitters league in organized baseball.  I believe in him because he controls the strike-zone and he has real power.  He seems to be a good defender as well, his ceiling is as high at least as high as Milledge.
  4. Andy LaRoche - Good defender, controls the strikezone better than people think.  He didnt draw many walks in Vero Beach but he didnt strikout much either and hit .333 with huge power.  His power and average dropped in AA, but he walked a lot more as well.  Scouts like his defensive tools, but it doesnt seem like he's really much of a defender yet.  His ceiling might not be as high as Stewert's, and he wont put up the numbers in Dodger Stadium that Stewert will in Colorado, but he's seen tougher environments and has hit in AA.  I think Stewert and LaRoche are really close and you could go either way and not be wrong, im just going with the younger guy.
  5. Felix Pie - Hitting for power at his age in the Southern League is great, but it was only half a season and he doesnt draw as many walks as the other players on this list.  He's still far from the majors, needs to work on his baserunning, defense and control of the strikezone.  I think he's the highest bust candidate on this list, but might have as a high a ceiling as anyone else.  The reason I rank him 5th is because it doesnt seem that the Cubs emphasize plate discipline much, their other top prospects all stuggle in the k/bb ratio and look at Corey Patterson, Dusty Baker thought that he need to work with Shawon Dunston on his baserunning to turn himself into an effective player.  I just think there is too much chance that he follows in the path of Corey Patterson.
these are just my opinions, please argue with them

by sanchez101 on Dec 16, 2005 4:43 PM EST   0 recs

the list
I'd keep:

Billingsley
Stewart
LaRoche
Guzman
Milledge
Petit

I agree with sanchez101's comments about Pie. I prefer Pence to Pie, but I'd like to see how he handles Double-A before putting him in your top six.

As for the pitchers, I don't see James as having the stuff to be a top-of-the-line starter in the majors and I think Hill be a lefty relief specialist. I don't trust pitchers who haven't reached Double-A, so that eliminates Bailey.

Hope my opinion helps.

by bolton on Dec 16, 2005 5:40 PM EST   0 recs

keepers
another question becomes... do you really want to keep both 3rd baseman. I think that tilts me to Pie who's ceiling is spectacular even more. Your major league depth weighs in here as well.
starring Alfonso Soriano as Vinny C in RFK part deux

by natsfan2005 on Dec 16, 2005 5:46 PM EST   0 recs

My list
I'm not familiar w Scoresheet/Sim at all, so my evaluations are based on Roto.  In Roto, rookie pitchers are seldom worth the rookie price, tho if a stud is available I am interested.  Here's my ranking:

1 - Guzman
2 - Milledge
3 - LaRoche
4 - Stewart
5 - Pie
6 - Billingsley

7 - Petit
8 - Bailey
9 - Pence
10 - James
11 - Hill

As you can see, 5 of the 6 I'd keep are hitters.  Billingsley and Bailey probably are the only 2 potential stud pitchers, and Bailey has only 1/2 season in pro ball so far.  Petit and James both appear ready for MLB now, but their upside probably is only #3 starter.  In Roto, I dont want to use a rookie pick on a pitcher who at best will be only a middle of the rotation starter, unless it's a very deep league.  To me, Hill doesnt compare to the rest.  

I dont know why someone said that Pence is overrated.  Overrated by who?  He's not in the same category w the other hitters, but he's still a pretty good prospect.  The other 5 hitters all are potential studs and I'd love to have any of them in my system.

I would expect that the first 8 will be on BA's Top 100 list.  Maybe James, also.

by rhd on Dec 16, 2005 5:52 PM EST   0 recs

I'm
with RHD on my 6 keepers (not necessarily in that order), and that's not coming from a roto perspective...

by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2005 10:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

with most sim leagues

I've seen, you need a guy that's going to be playing full time or super high ceiling by 2007.5

that said:

Billingsley
Hill
LaRoche
Stewart
Guzman
maybe Milledge or Petit

I like all those guys (some long term more than Hill or LaRoche), but if you have to give up actual MLBers to keep them, you probably aren't going to score wins.  Stewart, Guzman, Milledge prob won't play that much for 2 years, but with the ceiling and hype are worth keeping for trade if nothing else.  If you have a competitive team without Hill and maybe Laroche then move them/cut them and keep Milledge and maybe Petit. Alas, I had very high hopes for James, but without Mazzone I think I'd let others take the chance. The ceiling for Bailey, Pence and Pie is there, but time/gamble risk would make me shy away. Pie could be Vlad or Corey (who could very well end up Vlad...or Corey), what a variable.

by roaddog on Dec 16, 2005 10:46 PM EST   0 recs

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