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Crystal Ball: Huston Street

This Crystal Ball assumes that Street avoids any sort of catastrophic injury, and remains an effective closer, with just a few ups and downs, into his early 30s. Some of you more rabid Oakland fans may dislike the fact that this Crystal Ball shows his rookie season being the second-best of his entire career, with only one season (2008) being obviously better, but it would be hard for him to be better than he already is.

Notice what I did with his strikeout rates, a gradual increase through his mid-20s, but then a decline, though at the same time his control improved.

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Not to Quibble
Because I think you are pretty well on in terms of skill level, even though this is a very optimistic projection...

BUT, I say no way Street is in Oak for 6 years as closer.  Billy realizes that closers are so over-valued that I don't think he will want to go very long without the annual firesale of the closer which usually reaps pretty good rewards.

I mean, I could see Street being signed to a contract that would take thim through arbitration, but if he produces at this level for a long time, he will get expensive really really fast.

One other thing is, wouldn't he stick around as a league average reliever, why would he go from closing to out of the game in 2 years at the age of 34?

Thank a lot, keep up the good work!

by aclax2k on Nov 8, 2005 10:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

injuries, or simple ineffectiveness
I can't think of many closers that stayed at an above average to elite level for over a decade, so Street's CB is already a bit optimistic, in my opinion.  Bobby Thigpen went from having the greatest single season of any closer ever at the time, to being out of baseball in three years, and he was 29.

Come to think of it, the track record of young closers really isn't that good.  How many players have been thrust into the closer role at 22 and have stayed in that role well into their 30's?  As Tim Kurkjian mentioned in his article on the two RotY winners, the only other pitchers to save 10 games in a season before age 22 are Terry Forster, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kelvim Escobar, Victor Cruz, Lloyd Allen and Bart Johnson, which isn't an incredibly encouraging list.  Johnson was never really a closer, and didn't do much after his 10-save season anyway.  Forster fell apart despite a very promising start to his career, much in the same way its looking like Kim's will.  Cruz and Allen were out of baseball by age 25.  Escobar has had a pretty up and down career, and has spent a lot of time as a starter.

Looking at the top 100 save seasons of all time, the only guys under 25 on the list are Rod Beck(saved 48 games in '93 at 24), and two guys from this year, K-Rod and Chad Cordero.

by Ian Miller on Nov 8, 2005 10:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Could it be
That this a sign of a shift in the way college relief pitchers are being viewed.  Before they were just seen as guys who couldn't start, and now they are seen as guys who could help within a year or two of being drafted.  Hansen and Devine both pitched in the majors this year, and look like they will be in the bullpen for their teams next year as well.

by JFP on Nov 8, 2005 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

very over-valued etc...
I think Billy may have turned the corner on that one. I'm sure Street could fetch a huge prize right now. BUT HE IS THAT VALUABLE.  He's a very special kid, who is already high quality at a young age. We all see how instrumental Mariano Rivera is to the Yankee's, and i believe (and i think Beane does too) that Huston Street can become the same thing. It was a pretty unanimous fact on the team that without Huston the A's wouldn't have climbed back into first place (and eventually lose out). I'm sure that Beane will not only sign Street for the 5 more years, but keep him after. Thinka bout it. At the end of his first six years, he will be going into his theoretical prime.

It says a whole lot about Street when Barry Zito says (paraphrasing) "Huston is great. When he steps on the mound, you just feel confident and calm that he will close it out". SO, in five years, the A's will most likely have a new stadium (somewhere) and a higher payroll, meaning that Beane can keep Huston around for the 9 million a year that he would eventually be. Wolff (A's owner) has already stated that if Beane decides to spend money on the right thing, they would be willing.

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 11:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to sound biased
... but to expect anyone to become Mariano Rivera is a little much... it's kind of like saying we expect Ryan Howard to become as clutch and as dangerous as David Ortiz. I agree that he is an outstanding young pitcher, but let's lay off the Rivera comparisons for now. We can revisit that in about 5 years...

by jc3 on Nov 9, 2005 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i wasn't saying he will become Mariano Rivera
I was saying that i think he will become instrumental to the team as Rivera is to the yankees. He may not produce like Rivera, but i think he has a chance of becoming one of the most important pieces to the A's future puzzle.

by ohad on Nov 9, 2005 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Annual Firesale on Closers
I think that you might be a bit confused.  It is true that Mr. Beane argues that closers are overvalued, but to say that there is an annual firesale on the part of the A's is adsolutely ridiculous.  Here is what happened with the A's closers recently:

Sept 1999-2001: Jason Isringhausen served as the closer.  2001 was the last year of his contract and his performance from 2000-2001 priced himself out of the A's range.

  1. Billy Koch - Performed well but was highly flawed.  Traded before the 2003 season.
  2. Keith Foulke aquired in exchange for Bill Koch.  Was best closer since Eck.  2003 was a contract year.  Took more money to go to Boston.
  3. King Arthur Rhodes then Dotel.  Dotel signed an extension to pitch in 2005.
  4. Dotel gets hurt, Street era begins.
The only player traded was Koch.  All others were either free agents or got injured.

I want to make a quick point about college closers.  I think that there is the perception that college closers are failed starters.  That couln't be further from the truth.  In recent years college closers have been the best pitchers on their teams.  College closers throw virtually every day.  Because of the amount of offense in college baseball, it is vital to have a guy at the back of the bullpen to shut things down.  Moreover, college closers generally throw more than one inning.  Hence, it's no surprise to see guys like Street, Chad Cordero, Joey Devine, etc reach the bigs so quickly.  Often times the closer is the most advanced pitcher on the staff.

by Chickwalker on Nov 9, 2005 11:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty good
but I do think he will have 3-5 40+ save seasons and may even flirt with 50 a few times.  I also think he'll pitch longer, but if he does what you say, I'll be happy just the same.
"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Nov 8, 2005 10:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Which draft pick did the A's use?
To draft Street.  Was it a pick that they got for losing a free agent, or was it the pick that they originally owned?
I'm basically wondering if the Street acquisition was a shrewd "trade" of Free Agent X for him, or did they use a high draft pick on a really good reliever.

by doubledribble on Nov 8, 2005 10:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

supplemental pick
I'm not sure who for.  Keith Foulke, maybe?

Ouroboros.

by Ian Miller on Nov 8, 2005 10:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

pick
40th pick in supp 1st round for Tejada

by jc3 on Nov 8, 2005 11:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

arghhgh
i would kill myself if he moved to the Rangers, then the frikkin Angels. God no. Thank God the point of this isn't to predict which teams he ends up on.

I'm curious as to why he has only one season of 35+ saves. I wonder if there is any particular reason for that? Though 344 saves gets him into the hall of fame with stats like that.

About pitching till he's 34. I guess it may make more sense since he started closing at such a young age, but you could also say he keeps going and remains effective, because he doesn't rely on his fastball like other closers breaking down at old age (like Troy Percival). Trevor Hoffman has continued to close at a high level even though i think his velocity is a few mph down. So i wouldn't be surprised if he pitched until he was 37 either.

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 11:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

re:
"i would kill myself if he moved to the Rangers, then the frikkin Angels. God no. Thank God the point of this isn't to predict which teams he ends up on."

How do you think Ranger fans feel about a beloved-Longhorn in an Athletics uniform?

by Ian Miller on Nov 8, 2005 4:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

point taken
I just want Huston (if he MUST go somewhere else) go somewhere where i can still root for his success.

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

also
Hoffman converted to a pitcher in the minors, and didn't become a regular closer until he was 27, so comparing Hoffman and Street doesn't work.  The mileage on their arms will be completely different.

Using a changeup doesn't make you any more likely to stick around, anyway.

by Ian Miller on Nov 8, 2005 4:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hoffman's been a professional pitcher
Since age 23. Street since he was 20. Hoffman just completed his 12th year as a major league closer, Huston projected at what was it, 11-12? basically, you are right, though in a differen't way, since their mileage on their arms would be around the same (11 years), though Hoffman became a relief pitcher in 1991, 14 years ago.

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mileage in innings
Street was a regular pitcher in college(and college pitchers are abused quite a bit more these days; see Rice trio), Hoffman wasn't.  Street threw nearly 80 innings this year, at age 21.  Hoffman didn't throw more than 56 innings in any major league season until he was 28.  That's what I meant by mileage.

by Ian Miller on Nov 8, 2005 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Makes sense
I think you are right that ERA wise he will likely never top 2005.

by novaoakland on Nov 8, 2005 12:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

But he does in 2008.
Nova, do you think 6 years is about right for Street in Oakland?  With the high likelyhood of Italiano moving to the pen (premature Lidge comps on the slider aside), do you think BB keeps Street like Ohad thinks, or trades him/lets him walk?

by gatling on Nov 8, 2005 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's too early to tell
about Italiano. But if he is ready in like 4 years, that might change everything. I like street a lot, and think Billy will do all that he can to keep Italiano a starter. THe way it projects out-Haren, Blanton and Harden are all up by the end of 2010 season. Zito, if signging a four year extension, would be too. Thats why choosing three high potential starters with at least three years in the minors was such a great move. Prospectively, they could be ready to take over for the free agents to be, with the A's probably trying to lock up one of the "new three" a la trading Blanton and Haren and signing Harden like this year (if they sign Zito).

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point but,
but for Italiano to stay a starter he has to develop a third pitch.  I'm not saying he won't, but a dominating slider and 95 mph fastball touching 98 mph is a great start for closer.  Lansford and Mazzaro

by gatling on Nov 8, 2005 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lansford and Mazzaro
would hopefully be ready for the rotation by 2009 and then you could deal Blanton.  I'd move Harden over Haren, based on injury history so far.  That could change in the next few years.  I'd also keep an eye on Michael Madsen, if he pitches well next year it might prove he's not smoke and mirrors.  I'd say a Haren-Lansford-Mazzaro-Madsen set is a good start, with Ray, Shull, Kilby, Italiano, etc. in the 'pen.  

Some of this becomes moot if Windsor, Braden, Rheinecker, and Meyer prove worthy of spots in the rotation.  Hopefully two of those four pan out, and we don't have to rely soley on the three HS arms we drafted this year.

by gatling on Nov 8, 2005 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pitching Predictions
Let's slow down a bit guys.  Italiano and Lansford pitched in high school games last year.  Besides, you can't predict that every pitcher that you draft will work out.  1 out of 10 is probably being conservative.  Also, don't be fooled by Madsen.  He dominated rookie ball hitters in terms of wins/loses and era.  But look at his strikeouts per 9ip.  I wonder if the guys was just advance for his league but won't pan out.  He sits at about 86-88 mph and while it's true that the radar gun doesn't define a pitcher, you better locate like no other to get big league hitters out.

by Chickwalker on Nov 9, 2005 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing
The A's organization does best is teach changeups.

by ohad on Nov 8, 2005 2:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with the ERA's
The walk rate is way too high.  The crystal ball shows it increasing from this year and on into the next couple.  In actuality, his walk rate after the first couple months dropped a ton after he figured out he was really going to be able to dominate at the major league level.  He nibbled his first 26 innings giving 15 free passes.  After that adjustment period, he only gave up 11 walks in 62 innings.

The ERA might never be that low again, but until this year Mariano Rivera never had an ERA as low as Streets, so that shouldn't be too contravercial.

I believe he will get more saves in Oakland than is projected.  The A's closers have historically gotten a ton of saves and annually been Rolaids Relief Man contenders.

The worst part of the crystal ball is that he stays in our division almost his entire career.  I don't want the A's facing him the rest of his career.  Send him to the Mets where high paid star players disappear into obscurity or irrelevance.

by LizardKing51 on Nov 8, 2005 1:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Another thing I am interested in
He definitely tired down the stretch.  In his final 3 1/2 weeks he have up more hits than innings pitched and his ERA was above 5.  This might just be that he is getting used to the long season and he wont have this trouble again.  It could also mean that he can't effectively pitch at the end of the season when he is used for about 80 innings.  He pitched more than an inning 22 times last year, which is a lot for a closer.  We should know more about this situation next offseason.

by LizardKing51 on Nov 8, 2005 2:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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