Cards will sign AJ Burnett

It could be a good deal...

Beyond what the BP guys may think, this is not a Driefort situation. AJ has had one major injury, that I can recall, so it's not like the chronic issues Driefort had. AJ's injury was only to his elbow, and recovery rates from TJ are really good.

Anyway, I've been following AJ since he was in single A, and I still think the guy can dominate. To me, the biggest issue is his maturity, so maybe Duncan and LaRussa can get the guy to concentrate more consistently.

In any case, I think signing AJ could be a huge boost for the Cards, and give them a shot at having 2 legit #1 starters, and a rotation of Carp, AJ, and Mulder seems built for the playoffs.

by beastball on Dec 1, 2005 12:43 PM EST reply actions

injury history

you're wrong about burnett having only one major injury. he's been injured for parts of every single season except 2005. and he's had crazy pitch counts throughout his career, not to mention extremely alarming mechanics.

the big difference between burnett and dreifort is that burnett is a better pitcher when healthy. but he is as big an injury risk as there is.

if he does end up with the cards, i'll be surprised, since i assumed he would end up with the highest bidder and the cardinals usually go with the veterans who will take less to play on a winning team in a great baseball town.

by jpahk on Dec 1, 2005 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

Do you know what his other injuries were?

I didn't think they were anything major, like joint related. Were they shoulder, knee or further elbow problems?

I don't really know, the only major injury I knew about was the elbow. I knew Dreifort had several major knee injuries before he signed the contract.

Muscular things, or blisters and stuff like that I discount because they aren't major and are recoverable. Smaller injuries like that, even if they have happened once a year, wouldn't worry me much when thinking about signing someone.

by beastball on Dec 1, 2005 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Source?

Not that I don't believe you, but is this written anywhere on anything? Like a website, or even a dinner napkin?

It will be interesting watching Tony LaRussa overmanage another talented club out of the playoffs. :)

by Klostrophobic on Dec 1, 2005 1:30 PM EST reply actions

source....

I have heard from two different websites that have supposed Card insiders that AJ Burnett will sign with the Cards within the next few days and so that is my source...

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Dec 1, 2005 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

from espn.com

Burnett In the Cards?
Dec 1 - The Cardinals remain in the hunt for A.J. Burnett, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. "We're furthering discussions," agent Darek Braunecker told the newspaper. "Things have certainly become more focused with several [teams] in the last few days. We're moving forward with many clubs."
The Cardinals are discussing their willingness to offer a five-year contract to Burnett. They usually don't offer that long of a contract to pitchers, and any decision to make such an offer would be first approved by ownership.

Braunecker already has received multiple offers for his client, who is seeking $50 milion over five years. The Blue Jays and Orioles are the front-runners at this point.

by goalieguy on Dec 1, 2005 1:50 PM EST reply actions

that seems to contradict

the subject line of this diary.

It does make logical sense, though. The Cards look like they are going to lose a long time horse in Matt Morris. That guy never gets the respect he deserves.

by akk99 on Dec 1, 2005 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

burnett's mechanics

here is a ridiculously good article on AJ burnett's pitching motion. nice pictures, nice analysis.

bottom line: huge injury risk.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2005/11/16/162029/67

by jpahk on Dec 1, 2005 2:00 PM EST reply actions

A little of the subject

But who would you guys rather have, Oliver Perez or AJ Burnett? Both are very frustrating pitchers that have less than ideal mechanics and yet have elctric stuff.

by slugggo on Dec 1, 2005 2:40 PM EST reply actions

I'd rather have Burnett..

He's proven he can do it, and apart of some injuries that limited the number of innings he threw, when he does throw innings, they are quality ones. And he just came off of a 30+ start season, with 200+ innings, almost 200ks, and a good WHIP.

I worry that Perez seems to float between ineffectiveness and dominance, and add that to his injury problems, then he's more of a risk.

by beastball on Dec 1, 2005 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

huh?

Wow, I couldn't disagree more.

Perez' injury problems are largely the result of temper issues and a laundry cart that couldn't quite move fast enough. Perez' best year is better than Burnett's, and Perez will be 25 next year vs. 29 for Burnett. I think a lot of 24 y.o. pitchers (in 2005) have trouble consistently repeating their motions, but there is room for improvement.

Burnett, on the other hand...well, I'll let him say it in his own words:
"[Dr. James Andrews] said `You're putting pressure on your elbow by throwing too hard. You need to pitch a little bit.' I said 'Sorry Doc, I thought that was a good thing.' I said if that's the case, make an appointment for June. I'll be back in here next week."

That does not instill me with confidence. If I want one or the other for long-term, it'd easily be Perez.

"One year ago we knocked on the door. This year, we beat on the door. Next year, we're gonna kick the SOB in." - Bum

by bigfatdrunk on Dec 1, 2005 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Well, there are risks to both...

I understand there are some injury risks related to both of them, but my main problems with Perez are questions about his shoulder (he had multiple bouts with shoulder stiffness to the point where he couldn't pitch or even sleep), no track record, and in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately moment, his consisently poor performance for the year when he was able to pitch. No bright spots that I can see. Is that really 70 walks in 103 innings!? To me that means either he's hurt, or he's lost his control, and either situation makes me uneasy, one more than the other obviously.

Burnett, on the other hand, might be a higher isk for a future injury (although Perez's shoulder scares the hell out of me, as it should you too), but he's had better performance in general, better performance lately, and he's been healthy. He may be older, but at least he's shown he can pitch consistently well, and he hasn't had any injury scares lately.

So yeah, I'll stick with Burnett over Perez at this point.

by beastball on Dec 1, 2005 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

I'd be surprised ......

...if the Blue Jays don't up their offer. Missing out on Giles stung them a bit and they do have new millions to spend before midnight.

by Samdog7 on Dec 1, 2005 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Where are the Blue Jays getting all their money?

Hello everyone,

Where are the Blue Jays getting all their money? I know they were supposed to increase payroll because ownership bought the Rogers Centre, but I didn't think they were going to throw out 2-3 "megadeals."

It's not like their attendance has been great - not like it was in their glory years of 1992-1993 (maybe 1994 before the strike.) They had been spending in the bottom half of baseball for most of the last ten years - now, all of a sudden they're spending within a few steps of the Yankees.

Prediction: Either the Blue Jays are going to be much improved (provided these signings take place,) or the Blue Jays are going to struggle for a long time if any or several of these high-priced guys suffer injuries or struggle in any way. They're going to have to "eat" those contracts and they don't have the Yankees or Red Sox's budgets to go out and get replacements for them or compensate for huge contracts that don't work out.

It will be interesting to see if these megadeals help Toronto rise back to the top or if there are too many holes, inconsistencies, and injuries that will undermine these megadeals.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a good day!

by indiansfan on Dec 1, 2005 5:07 PM EST reply actions

This is interesting....

I agree that they are not in their hay-day, but the Blue Jays drew almost 2 million fans last year. That is not chump change, and from what I read, their planned payroll is going to be about $70 million, which is inline with other teams that draw around 2 million fans, whose payrolls seem to hover between $60-70 million.

The marlins are the exception, they draw 2 million fans and have a fire sale.

It's interesting to look at payroll/attendance numbers. I know that it doesn't account for the stadium or TV contracts each team has, but it's still interesting to see how fans support teams, and which owners invest in their teams.

by beastball on Dec 1, 2005 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

damn lazy...

It's a few hours later, and though I know others know better than I, but here's your answer:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58688-2005Feb2.html

That's right: new ownership. Oh, I should qualify that there is no Loria in this deal, so Jays fans should rejoice! Errrr, that should read: "Jays fans should rejoice, eh!"

That's right. I went there.

"One year ago we knocked on the door. This year, we beat on the door. Next year, we're gonna kick the SOB in." - Bum

by bigfatdrunk on Dec 1, 2005 11:33 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks bigfatdrunk!

Hello everyone,

bigfatdrunk - Thanks for the article; I thought that was the old ownership and they just happened to purchase the Rogers Centre (formerly known as SkyDome.) Amazing what you learn in a day. :-)

Take care and have a great weekend!

by indiansfan on Dec 2, 2005 12:47 AM EST reply actions