Texas Rangers Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2005 1:57 PM EST in News Comment 18 comments

John Danks, Texas Ranger

Texas Rangers Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

1) Thomas Diamond, RHP
Pitched brilliantly for Class A Bakersfield, 8-0, 1.99 in 14 starts with 101/31 K/BB in 81 innings, but struggled after promotion to Double-A Frisco, going 5-4, 5.35 in 14 starts with 68/38 K/BB in 69 innings. Walk rate increased after promotion, and velocity reportedly down a bit from earlier in the year. Still very interesting but stock has dropped.

2) John Danks, LHP
Like Diamond, pitched great at Bakersfield but struggled after moving up to Double-A, going 4-10, 5.49 in 17 starts with 85/34 K/BB in 98 innings, 117 hits allowed. This is the second year in a row that he got off to a hot start, then struggled after being promoted. I think he will recover but he needs a consolidation season.

3) Ian Kinsler, SS
Hit .274/.348/.464 with 23 homers, 19 steals for Triple-A Oklahoma. Overall production down a bit from last year, although still a solid campaign.

4) Juan Dominguez, RHP
Went 4-6, 4.22 in 70 innings for the Rangers, with 45/25 K/BB. Component ratios need to improve in order for him to sustain success.

5) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Hit .338/.399/.561 in 84 games in Triple-A, but just .227/.272/.407 in 43 games in the majors. Little left to prove at the minor league level, but no obvious place for him to play.

6) Chris Young, RHP
One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, went 12-7, 4.26 in 31 starts, 137/45 K/BB in 165 innings. I think his success is sustainable, although he may not improve much from his current level.

7) Vince Sinisi, OF-1B
Hit .363/.438/.600 at Class A Bakersfield, but fell apart after being promoted to Double-A, hitting just .258/.300/.343 in 65 games for Frisco. Lack of power a major disappointment, plate discipline also less than advertised. I have always been a bit skeptical about him, but I really have no idea what he is going to do now.

8) John Hudgins, RHP
5.87 ERA in 19 starts for Oklahoma, 77/37 K/BB in 103 innings, 127 hits allowed. Unfortunately, seems to be following the Justin Wayne career path for Stanford pitchers, rather than the Mike Mussina path.

9) Mike Nickeas, C
Hit just .202/.263/.302 in Double-A, though limited to only 68 games by injury. Another disappointment, although he has time to rebound if healthy.

10) Joaquin Arias, SS
Hit .315/.335/.423 with 20 steals for Frisco. A flashy player with good tools, doesn't strike out much, but needs to raise his walk rate at least a little. Power development uncertain, also needs to polish defense and baserunning. Best attribute is age, only 21 right now.

11) Eric Hurley, RHP
Went 12-6, 3.77 in 28 starts for Class A Clinton, 152/59 K/BB in 155 innings. Very solid performance. Needs to improve his command a bit more, but that is nitpicking at this point. Fine prospect whose stock has improved and was already very good.

12) Jason Botts, 1B
Hit .286/.375/.522 with 25 homers, 67 walks, 102 RBI for Oklahoma, then hit .296/.367/.296 for the Rangers. Strikes out a lot but power is real. But where does he fit?

13) Kameron Loe, RHP
Went 9-6, 3.42 in 92 innings for the Rangers, used as a swingman. Good rookie campaign, although 45/31 K/BB isn't great. Worried about low strikeout rate.

14) Josh Rupe, RHP
Pitched well in Double-A, awful in Triple-A, and did well in 10 major league innings. I have never had a good feel for this guy, and I have no idea what to expect from him in the future.

15) Matt Lorenzo, RHP
Struggled in Double-A (7.14 ERA in 47 innings), then traded to the Braves, where he will probably get buried in the farm system.

16) Mark Roberts, RHP
1.45 ERA in 10 games for Clinton, then 4.26 ERA with 15/4 K/BB in 19 innings for Frisco. Sample size at both levels too small to draw broad conclusions.

17) Anthony Webster, OF
Toolsy guy, hit .301/.346/.484 with 36 doubles, 11 triples, 11 homers, and 25 steals in 30 attempts for Class A Bakersfield. Doesn't draw a lot of walks but struck out just 55 times in 498 at-bats. I think he is intriguing. Not protected from Rule 5.

18) Wes Littleton, RHP
Bucked organization trend and actually improved at Frisco, after converting to relief. 3.97 ERA, 71/24 K/BB in 82 innings. Allowed 93 hits however. Pitched well in Arizona Fall League.

19) K.C. Herren, OF
Hit .264/.346/.417 for short-season Spokane. Good tools, but struck out 63 times in 57 games. Full-season transition in '06 will be interesting.

20) Marshall McDougall, 3B
Hit .341/.416//578 in 57 games for Oklahoma, went 3-for-18 in brief Rangers trial. Has absolutely nothing left to prove in the minors, but still looking for a bench job somewhere.

Thoughts on this system? Again, the '06 list will be a lot different. Hurley will jump up certainly.

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Comments

Kinsler and Gonzalez...Soriano even

You would think they would package those three for a pitcher(s) by now. Kinsler's dropoff was a direct reflection of him not making the team out of camp IMO

I disagree that Diamond's stock has dropped...A loss of some velocity after coming out of UNO and then throwing 150+ innings is not a big deal. I think he is on the fast track and could get a start or two next year...the Rangers have been doing that with a lot of guys for the last year or so.

I guess they like to see how they respond after their first start when they shut down another team...then in start two they usually give up a few dingers and get sent down after the third start.

Or maybe I'm just a disgruntled fan...

by themurph on Nov 30, 2005 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

suprised

I'm really suprised.... I didn't know the rangers had this many corner players who have shown production +.500 SLG etc. It will be interesting to see if the Rangers can flip some of these corner guys into more pitching. I like some of their pitchers but they obviously need all the help they can get.

by huuuubaah on Nov 30, 2005 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ranger system

Random thoughts:

Even though Danks, Diamond, and to a lesser extent, Volquez all struggled at Double-A, I'd still say they're one of the best pitching trios in the minors. Having seen him pitch in person several times, I can say that Edison Volquez is a much better pitcher than his stats indicate.

It's worth noting that Mike Nickeas was making a two level jump from the Northwest League to the Texas League, and that he did hit well in the Arizona Fall League. Another promising Ranger catcher, Taylor Teagarden, would have been pretty high on next year's list if not for TJ surgery.

A guy I like a lot as a sleeper in the lower minors is Zach Phillips. His 3.93 ERA in rookie ball doesn't necessarily blow you away, but when you take out his awful pro debut(where he was left in and gave up eight runs in an inning and two-thirds), his numbers look like this: 48 ip, 39 h, 13 bb, 70 k, 2.25 ERA

I hope I'm proven wrong, but I was pretty dissapointed when the Rangers called John Mayberry's name in the draft. I can think of at least four or five guys I would have preferred over him.

Anthony Webster is another guy I like a lot. I mentioned him in the orangizational sleepers thread a while back. He's athletic enough to play centerfield, his raw power is starting to come around, and his low strikeout rate shows that he can make contact. He'd be my pick for breakout player next year.

by Ian Miller on Nov 30, 2005 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: DVD, just one reminder

Generation-K.

by samjjones on Nov 30, 2005 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

I got to see Kameron Loe a good amount this year. He's interesting. He's so unique and deceptive. He's got a very unusual delivery, he's 6'8", and a strong sinkerballer. I think he has a good chance to remain successful, even if the strikeout numbers remain a little soft.

In fact, the thing I'm most worried about with him is how emotional he is. Dude is a livewire, with a memory. I think he needs to watch that, but I like him a good amount going forward.

by bootsy on Nov 30, 2005 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re:

I hope his performance has put to rest the assumption that because he doesn't throw in the mid 90's he'll be relegated to the pen. He had a significantly better ERA as a starter, although his peripherals were nearly the same.

His age and minor league track record are two reasons why I don't think he's just another Ryan Drese.

by Ian Miller on Nov 30, 2005 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Loe

Loe, overly emotional?

I would have suggested just the opposite, that he's unusually poised and unflappable. Look at the two or three starts he had where something bordering on catastrophic happened early (three errors in one of them, a grand slam in another) and check on what he did the rest of the way on that particular night.

I think his makeup is one of the things that goes squarely in the plus column.

Jamey

by Jamey Newberg on Nov 30, 2005 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Laughing off being hit in the head with a Vladimir Guerrero line drive.

If there's anyone in that top 20 that qualifies as "overly emotional," it's Juan Dominguez.

by RCCook on Nov 30, 2005 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Maybe I just caught him on a couple wrong days. I definitely saw him a little out of control a couple times. I don't mean over emotional as in sensitive. I mean over emotional as in too pumped up. He's a tough guy. That can be a weakness if a guy takes it too far. Can also be a huge strength if the toughness can be focused.

Either way, I like him. I think (and hope) he has a bright future.

by bootsy on Nov 30, 2005 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question for J. Sickels...

How would you rank the Rangers farm system right now, vis-a-vis the rest of the league?

Bottom third? Middle of the pack? 15-20 range?

by Adam J Morris on Nov 30, 2005 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just can't shake DVD's struggles this year.

Really bothers me.

by novaoakland on Nov 30, 2005 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

bothers me too

but more because their so highly thought of - i think its because their names combine to make up the 3 letters of a hot modern-day technology .. isn't that childish behavior ?

DVD is terrible .. can someone please explain whats special about Danks? .. theres been thousands of super-duper young lefties that never make it.. what makes him any different? .. getting bombed in A-ball 2 years in a row means he's probly a flake

Volquez, same story - great stuff that hasn't translated onto a stat sheet

i like Diamond though, he's at least shown some flash of goodness and maybe could even make a good closer.. so i'm just gonna call them D

they also get talked-up for the lack of a true good pitching prospect in their system... even though Loe has been very good, and Schatler was good in many many innings.. im willing to bet a nice lot of the Ranger farm has pitched better then these nipple twisters

by ufo on Dec 1, 2005 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

danks

"can someone please explain whats special about Danks? .. theres been thousands of super-duper young lefties that never make it.. what makes him any different? .. getting bombed in A-ball 2 years in a row means he's probly a flake"

get your facts straight. danks hasn't been bombed at any level for more than 2-3 months at a time. he pitched just a couple of innings after signing in 2003, then started off 2004 in a full-season league at age 19. he dominated the midwest league. promoted to the cal league midway through the season, he struggled. they sent him back to the cal league to start 2005. he dominated. promoted to AA mid-season, he struggled. he's still just 20 and has been steadily climbing the ladder, one level per season, and has demonstrated a remarkable ability to make adjustments. even in his bad half-season at frisco, his ratios were quite solid, 85/34 in 98 innings.

so this is what's special about danks. he's 20, and he's had a taste of AA, and didn't look overmatched. how many LHP prospects can say that? off the top of my head, lefty prospects i'd rather have than danks include liriano, olsen, lester, ... and that's it. chuck james would probably be next. maybe i'm forgetting somebody.

from a non-performance-analysis standpoint, danks has good-to-excellent stuff and terrific makeup. and as a former 1st-round pick, he'll get every opportunity to succeed.

by jpahk on Dec 1, 2005 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Danks has been heavily pushed, which is why he's struggled after promotions. If he'd been left in the MWL all of last year, and in the Cal League all of this year, where he still would have been one of the youngest pitchers in the respective leagues, he'd have jaw-dropping overall numbers.

by Ian Miller on Dec 1, 2005 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marshall McDougall

I keep hoping he stumbles into a starting job.

He hit 6 (SIX!?!) homeruns in one game at FSU, against Maryland back in 1999. You just have to root for a guy who can do that, unless you're a Maryland fan of course.

Story here.

by Arthur on Dec 1, 2005 6:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Diamond

When you look at Diamond compared to the other college pitchers drafted in the top half of the first round, how do you think he compares? I see Diamond as a potentially valuable #3 guy who eats innings and keeps you in ball games. I think he's better than Weaver in the long term, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is better than Sowers. The Rice trio all have their issues, so the jury is out on them. I think Niemann certainly has #1 or #2 potential and Verlander is a stud, but Diamond will be a valuable member of a big league club for quite a while.

by mhef08 on Dec 2, 2005 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re:

I'd be curious to hear John's response to this, as well. I definitely don't think Diamond is better than Verlander, and while he might have a higher ceiling than Sowers, I think he's less likely to be a good long-term pitcher. Weaver is really interesting, since he missed a year, and had a fairly pedestrian first season(given the hype).

by Ian Miller on Dec 2, 2005 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs