How Good Can David Wright Be?
I've received several requests to do a Crystal Ball for David Wright. He is one of my favorite young players, certainly, so I'll go ahead and do one. The thing for Wright is, even if he doesn't improve from where he already is, he's so good right now that a long career at his current level of performance would make him one of the best third basemen in history. If he actually improves from where he is now. . .
Of course, he could theoretically decline from his current standards. But for today, we will assume that Wright maintains his current level of performance, with slight variations from year to year, perhaps improving a bit in his late 20s, and lasts as an effective player into his mid-30s. Let's see what we come up with under such assumptions.
Poll question in the comments thread
Crystal Ball subject to large errors, do not use for planning purposes.
UPDATE: The thing with Wright going to Baltimore was meant as something of a joke, good-natured teasing of long-suffering Mets fans, but is apparently really pissing off a lot of Mets boosters. Feel free to ignore it, guys. The Crystal Ball feature is half-serious and half-tongue-in-cheek. In this case, I do expect that Wright will put up numbers similar to this if he remains healthy, but I am not seriously claiming that he will end up in Baltimore.
This projection for Wright is
Too pessimistic; he will be better than this or last longer than this (693 votes)
Too optimistic; he won't be this good or last this long (36 votes)
Just right (241 votes)
970 total votes