David Wright's Future

by John Sickels on Nov 14, 2005 12:04 PM EST in News

I'm good
How Good Can David Wright Be?

I've received several requests to do a Crystal Ball for David Wright. He is one of my favorite young players, certainly, so I'll go ahead and do one. The thing for Wright is, even if he doesn't improve from where he already is, he's so good right now that a long career at his current level of performance would make him one of the best third basemen in history. If he actually improves from where he is now. . .

Of course, he could theoretically decline from his current standards. But for today, we will assume that Wright maintains his current level of performance, with slight variations from year to year, perhaps improving a bit in his late 20s, and lasts as an effective player into his mid-30s. Let's see what we come up with under such assumptions.

Poll question in the comments thread
Crystal Ball subject to large errors, do not use for planning purposes.

UPDATE: The thing with Wright going to Baltimore was meant as something of a joke, good-natured teasing of long-suffering Mets fans, but is apparently really pissing off a lot of Mets boosters. Feel free to ignore it, guys. The Crystal Ball feature is half-serious and half-tongue-in-cheek. In this case, I do expect that Wright will put up numbers similar to this if he remains healthy, but I am not seriously claiming that he will end up in Baltimore.

Poll

This projection for Wright is

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in 2011...

I wouldn't want to be the GM who let him go!

by jc3 on Nov 14, 2005 12:10 PM EST 0 recs

The Orioles in 2011???

While I know these crystal balls are just educated guesses regarding where the player will end up, at this point, it is unrealistic that he will leave the Mets when eligible for free agency. Wright is already their most marketable player and money will never be an issue given the New York market. Plus, he's from Norfolk and supposedly grew up a Mets fan.

by jjr on Nov 14, 2005 12:51 PM EST up 0 recs

The end result is about right but...

2 very minor quibbles with the projection:

He's shown as very durable. It would be safer to have him in the mid-range of durability.
Players of his quality now on average last a little longer.

My guess is that he lasts until 38, but misses a few more games in his prime.

So, where would this career place him among third basemen? Behind Schmidt, Brett and Mathews obviously. I guess A-Rod might have retired with 750 homers and 1200-1400 games at third by then.

We'll see if he makes it.

by Mike Green on Nov 14, 2005 12:28 PM EST 0 recs

Assuming...

... that Chipper doesn't fall off the face of the Earth at age 34 (definitely possible), this projection would slot him behind Larry in the 3B all-time offensive pecking order.

by aCone419 on Nov 14, 2005 12:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Hey, John...

...where are the comps? A year ago, everyone seemed to be making fun of his de- at 3B, but he quieted dissenters. But what other 3Bmen have had similarly stellar Age-22 seasons?

by Azteca on Nov 14, 2005 12:32 PM EST 0 recs

22 year olds.

Hank Blalock, Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez, and the most similar is Dick Allen.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/allendi01.shtml

That's just about how I would map out Wright's career, except with Wright sticking at 3B and with less strikeouts.

by aCone419 on Nov 14, 2005 12:50 PM EST up 0 recs

rolen has/had a great career

Blalock is wierd, and CHavez has yet to fulfill potential. I would expect Wright to be full of consistency, while Chavez hasn't yet found in (had it in 04, lost it in 05)

by ohad on Nov 14, 2005 2:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Consistency

Excepting injuries (hah!), I think you can pencil wright in for 15+ years of .285-.300, 25-35, 95-115

by silvysilv on Nov 14, 2005 2:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Don't quite get this

I'm not sure why you think he's going to be a .285-.300 hitter when in his first full season at age 22 he hit .306. A 22 year old with his skills and work ethic is going to improve (barring injury). In the second half of the year he absolutely tore it up as he made adjustments to major league pitching. He will continue making those adjustments and will only get better. There aren't many holes that pitchers can exploit. He is equally adept at pulling it and at going the other way depending on where the pitch is. He does both with excellent power. He can handle fastballs and offspeed stuff equally well. I truly believe you are looking at a guy who will post seasons well above .300 with regularity. He will not be a homerun hitting slugger pounding out 40+ HR's a year, but will be a pure hitter who happens to hit the ball hard enough and often enough to consistently post solid 30 HR seasons (similar to Piazza). I think the average David Wright season during his prime will be something like .315 (avg), 32 (HR), 115 (RBI), 100 (R), 15-20 (SB). He will have some seasons where he will be a very real MVP contender.

by rvnic on Nov 15, 2005 1:56 PM EST up 0 recs

MVP

I think depending on what the Mets do in the off-season he'll be the trendy MVP pick going into next year. Who knows how things will play out, but we all know how pundits love to try and be different...

If you pick Wright and he wins you look like a genius. If not he's at least a productive young player who's game is still developing. Basically he's a safe pick to go out on a limb on, if that makes any sense...

by MetfanBren on Nov 15, 2005 2:39 PM EST up 0 recs

I think...

he'll be similar to Will Clark, but with a better carreer.

by jahs34 on Nov 15, 2005 7:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Ah Richie, don't call me Dick, Allen

Take alcohol out of the equation and he might have been the best of them all. Amazing to think he put up the numbers he did half in the bag most of the time.

by HuskerBob on Nov 14, 2005 3:52 PM EST up 0 recs

yeah...

just like Mantle, Ruth, and Hack Wilson...

by jc3 on Nov 14, 2005 4:30 PM EST up 0 recs

comps

comps include Ken Keltner and Richie Hebner on the weaker end, Ron Santo on the stronger end. He could be better than any of those guys.

by John Sickels on Nov 14, 2005 12:34 PM EST 0 recs

as a mets fan...

it kills me to see that projected move to baltimore...then i remember its just a projected move...

but honestly, with the new ebbetts field coming in '09 and the young core the mets are starting to put together i could see wright staying put in ny, same with reyes, for the duration of at least a free agency-spurred long-term deal once they become eligible (but hopefully before)

by robcast23 on Nov 14, 2005 12:49 PM EST 0 recs

stolen bases

I look for him to steal more bases than projected. In the next few years I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple of 20+ or even 30+ years. I also think runs scored may be a bit conservative. Hitting in the middle of the lineup with his onbase skills should lead to perennial 100 run seasons. For some reason I also picture him as a Met lifer. Hope he remains injury free as he's one of my favorite players and has Hall of Fame potential.

by eastin on Nov 14, 2005 1:47 PM EST 0 recs

I disagree

He might steal a few more early in his career, kind of like Scott Rolen, but once he gets that big contract, they will pretty much stop running him due to the risk of injury and the fact that he'll be hitting 3rd or 4th. It's happened with a lot of players, Shawn Green, Scott Rolen, Vlad Guerrero (he stills runs a little bit because he plays for the Angels), Andruw Jones, Griffey & Floyd (though some of it was due to injuries), etc.

by UncleMiltie on Nov 14, 2005 2:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Miss the point

I think you miss my point which is that over the next 5 years I think the stolen bases will be much higher. What he'll steal in his post 30 years I wouldn't even try to guess at. Sure in a few years he'll cut back some on the running, but I still stand by my predication that there will be some 20+ seasons and possibly 30+ seasons in the next few years. John shows 2005's 17 stolen bases as the career high for Wright. I don't think this will be the case.

by eastin on Nov 14, 2005 6:02 PM EST up 0 recs

I didn't miss the point

He might have one year where he steals 25, but for the most part, I see him stealing in the teens for the next couple of years. When he gets his big contract, I wouldn't expect him to steal more than 10. And he will get way before he's 30 because his arbitration clock started when he was 21.

by UncleMiltie on Nov 14, 2005 6:15 PM EST up 0 recs

The most depressing comp

Jim Ray Hart. Sometimes, things just don't work out...

by Mike Green on Nov 14, 2005 2:16 PM EST 0 recs

Higher average

I full expect Wright to become a constant 310+ hitter. I was very surprised at this part of the numbers.

Otherwise, solid job. I think he will have a few big seasons like you wrote. As for the Baltimore thing, its all in fun. However, if anyone was on path to stay with a team for his whole career its Wright. loyal and thankful personality/mets have tons of cash/will never be a problem/has leader abilties/good looking and easy to market in NY

by Deech on Nov 14, 2005 3:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Also, more 2B

I am fine with the HR, but Wright is a gap hitter. I expect a bunch of high 2B seasons, a little more thnan you anticipate. But as I said, this is pretty fair...

-A mets fan

by Deech on Nov 14, 2005 3:02 PM EST up 0 recs

The O's Thing

I'm surprised there weren't more complaints about the pic caption.

"Good? He's the best!"

(This snippet of dialogue brought to you by MST3K's Pod People.)

Go ahead and shoot your mouth off, like it might kill the silence.

by ESiegrist on Nov 14, 2005 3:21 PM EST 0 recs

MST3K

Ah, great reference to Pod People, one of the greatest moments of 1990's television ever.

by alexwithclass on Nov 14, 2005 5:26 PM EST 0 recs

Somewhat disagree.

I think he projects a bit better than this. The guy hit .306, 27, 102, 99, 17 SB at age 22. He's incedibly intelligent and hardworking so I would look for an upward curve from him for several years as he learns the league and matures further physically. I think you are looking at a guy capable of a number of huge average seasons (.320 +). His HR numbers will probably stay in the 30 - 35 range. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes his career with Piazza-like offensive numbers overall (with more SB's).

by rvnic on Nov 14, 2005 6:57 PM EST 0 recs

Agree with the Disagrees

I was fortunate enough to have Wright on my fantasy league so I got to know his stats a bit. What people need to remember is that he had a great second half of the season, especially his monster month in August. So he was able to adjust to the pitchers in the second half and mash them in the second half of the year - at 22! So the league hasn't really learned him but he appears to have learned the league.

Digging into his stats a little more, I notice that since he has been playing full time, out of 8 months, his lowest OPS is .840, his high is 1.103. So, he has been the epitome of consistency in hitting during his short career in the majors thus far, though I must note that when he was first starting, his first two weeks or so did not go well. But other than that, his OPS has mostly ranged from .840 to .884, with one month at .957 and the one noted at 1.103. That is in line with his minor league experience on a seasonal basis, so I can see why Sickels decided to tone down his career results relative to how well he did in his first full season. But given 8 months worth of good hitting, I don't think it's going much on a limb to think that he should do better.

Looking at his stats, one could say that he has been "penalized" by batting 7th for a good part of his career. His RBI totals jumps as a percentage of ABs, when looking at his totals for batting 5/6 vs. 7th. Thus, to me, the RBI totals for him look extremely conservative, he should be regularly getting 120-140 RBI during his 20's and early 30's.

His SB and homers increased as well, based on batting order, again significantly, so I think the SB and homers are conservative for him, he should be stealing 20-25 bases and hitting 30-45 homers regularly during his 20's and early 30's, unless the new Mets stadium (whenever that happens) bites into homers for whatever reason. Look at Reyes, he stole a lot more bases with the Mets in 2005 than he had ever done before, it shows how aggressive the manager is willing to be and was, Wright stole a lot more hitting 5/6 than he did 7th.

To me, Wright has too many pluses to be so conservative with his projection. He built on an extremely successful first season in the majors in 2004 and just about outdid it in every way in 2005. He has been extremely consistent in his hitting during every full month he has played. He should be put in more RBI friendly batting positions going forward plus he has done better in those positions than lower in the order. And his SB and HR rates were higher in higher parts of the lineup. Lastly, he was only 21 and did well in the majors in 2004 and only 22 in his first full season and did just as well, if not better.

That said, none of us has the experience or expertise that Sickels has with dealing with minor league stats and how they translate into major league performance. And perhaps I was blinded by my great find in my first fantasy league I've ever played in. But these are the points I would counter with when presented with the projection above.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Nov 14, 2005 8:50 PM EST 0 recs

Bottom line

Is that the kids going to be great for a long long time. His "aw shucks, I've been a Met fan since my dad could turn on WWOR" attitude lends itself perfectly to the position he's in. As he matures, he will assume a leadership role for this franchise. He will be to the Mets what Derek Jeter is to the Yanks. I just hope the championships follow.

What struck me as a very good harbinger (sp?) of things to come, was what a gamer he was throughout the season. He never dogged a play. He may have butchered a few...but he was always giving his all.

by akk99 on Nov 14, 2005 9:40 PM EST 0 recs

also

he had arguably the two best defensive plays of the year. the dive into the stands where he actually had to dive in to get the ball, as opposed to a certain person who dove in after catching the ball 4 strides before diving needlessly.
and he had the over the shoulder one hander in san diego.

by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 15, 2005 12:00 AM EST up 0 recs

still

It's hard to argue with Lowell as the GG winner. He made 6 errors to Wright's and had a better ZR and equal RF to Wright to boot. Wright was spectacular at times, but he made FOUR TIMES the errors that Lowell did.

by limozeen on Nov 15, 2005 1:22 AM EST up 0 recs

should say

EDIT:
He made 6 errors to Wright's 24...

by limozeen on Nov 15, 2005 1:23 AM EST up 0 recs

That's very true

but remember, he is only 22 and it was his first full year in the bigs (I say that with a big smile on my face).

by akk99 on Nov 15, 2005 9:21 AM EST up 0 recs

oh, i'm not even arguing

for wright as GG against lowell. i was just responding to the sentence that said wright butchered alot of plays. my whole thing is that wright is going to improve on his consistency at 3b and while he might not be a GG caliber guy he will be capable of making GG caliber plays mixed in with making the routine ones as well. i didn't see lowell enough to comment on his GG win.

by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 15, 2005 3:37 PM EST up 0 recs