Crystal Ball: Jeff Francoeur

by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2005 2:25 PM EST in News Comment 31 comments

The big question for Francoeur is this: how much will his below-average strike zone judgment hurt him? His major league performance this year was better than anything he ever did in the minors, but even so his BB/K/AB ratio is a red flag. On the other hand, Francoeur has such good bat speed that he seems able to overcome his over-aggressiveness at the plate, at least often enough to keep his numbers up. But back to the first hand, we note that Francoeur hit just .235/.273/.422 in September, a sign the pitchers were adjusting.

This Crystal Ball assumes that he will make some counter-adjustments, but won't be ready to duplicate his '05 performance overall until he's a bit further down the development road. Also, I think in the long run that Francoeur will be more of a power hitter than a batting average/OBP guy.

One further prediction: Braves fans and Francoeur partisans will complain that this Crystal Ball is too pessimistic. Hard-core statheads will complain that it is too optimistic.

Possible Comps: Dale Murphy, Jim Rice, Joe Carter.

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speed

the one thing i notice right off the bat, is I think you arent giving him enough credit on his sb ability; i think he will be able to steal more bases especially as he hones his skills and becomes more familiar with the league

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Nov 13, 2005 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'll take it!

I just hope the Braves could hold on to him long enough for him to actually post numbers like you have him putting up in his late 20's. He's such a defensive asset that I'd love to see them keep him as our starting right fielder until he puts it all together.

I don't think this is too pessimistic at all. He's not the next Vladimir Guerrero, and given that's the case, almost 400 homers and 1400 RBIs is a pretty stellar career.

Do you think Kelly Johnson might ever develop into a guy who could drive in 100?

by alexwithclass on Nov 13, 2005 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Francoeur

I really have no idea how Franceour will develop. I could see him developing passable plate discipline(55-60 walks, with triple-digit strikeouts), and if he does, I think he'll be a 35-40 homer, .300+ hitter. I could also see him not developing the plate discipline as a result of being rushed to the big leagues, and having a career much worse than the one you predict.

As long as he doesn't have serious injury problems, though, I think he will be a Gold Glove right fielder and flirt with a 30-30 season more than once.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Franceour

I agree that he'll steal more bases. I see him as having Andruw Jones-type numbers there. About 25-30 SBs every year to 27 or so, then leaves that part of his game behind to focus on power.

I think his career average will be closer to like .275, but I can definitely see him hitting in the .250s in some seasons.

by cinqua on Nov 13, 2005 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One more note

I don't think he'll get that many ABs next year. I have a feeling that he may be sent down for a month or so to work on plate discipline.

by cinqua on Nov 13, 2005 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not an Excellent Base Stealer

Well, maybe John slightly underestimated his SB ability, but 25-30 SB projection seems overly optimistic.

1.) He has never stolen more than 16 bases in a year of pro ball.

2.) His SB success rate has been consistently between 60%-70% - that's not awful but it isn't great, either.

by FI on Nov 13, 2005 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Vlad Guerrero didn't steal many bases in the minors either(and his SB rates weren't very good, in the minors or majors). Francoeur has great speed and Bobby Cox loves to send runners.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too optimistic

This projection - a borderline HOF career - seems a little too high. I went back and looked at his minor league stats and there's just not enough data to come up with a prediction this far above mean. He's extremely youang and really doesn't have that many professional at bats...

If this is the projection for Francoeur, what would the numbers for Delmon Young look like? 600 homers?

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

borderline HOF career?

Assuming Francoeur keeps his same HBP/SF/AB ratio(which probably won't happen, but for sake of argument let's say it does), then his career line will look be: .268/.325/.472, a .797 OPS.

That's not a borderline-HOF career for a corner outfielder.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"will look like" or "will be"

pick one

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dale Murphy

This projection is almost exactly the same as Dale Murphy's career , save .020 in isoOBP (I have a sneaking suspicion this is how John formulated this line). He's oft considered in that borderline HOF category.

by aCone419 on Nov 13, 2005 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Borderline" is accurate

Anyone who gets over 2200 hits, nearly 400 homers and over 1300 RBIs, I think can accurately be described as "borderline" for the HOF.

Baseball-reference's "HOF Monitor," for instance has Murphy as a likely HOFer. Not that he should be one, but that, given his numbers, he is likely to be one.

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Murphy

had a higher career OPS, more career homers, and he played in an era where hitting 35+ HR made you the best power hitter in the game. Francoeur's stats by today's standards aren't going to win him two HR titles and two MVP's.

In any event, Murphy's best years(age 25-31) were also much better than Francoeur's best years, going by the CB.

Murphy

injured, missed 50+ games
.885 OPS
.933 OPS
.919 OPS
.927 OPS
.824 OPS
.997 OPS(his best single season)

Francoeur

.819
injured, missed 50+ games
.825
.823
.806
.792
.864(his best single season)

So, they really aren't that comparable.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Apples and Oranges

I'm not arguing that the adjustments you've indicated (for era, for park, etc.) don't cut against Francoeur and towards Murphy. Yes, I agree, Murphy's numbers, when placed in context, are substantially better.

I'm merely saying that someone who produces a career line like Francoeur is projected to produce will, rightly or wrongly, inevitably end up with a fair amount of support for the HOF.

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I think those that push Murphy as a Hall-candidate do so because in his prime years he was arguably the best player in baseball. Despite his underwhelming overall line, those prime years at least make his candidacy debatable. That isn't the case with Francoeur.

If your argument is that if a few people consider your career to have been HOF-worthy, that you become a "borderline HOF"-er, then I must disagree. There are probably plenty of Toronto-fans that think Joe Carter should be in the Hall. No disrespect intended towards Mr. Carter, but he's not in the Hall, and he's not even borderline.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Context

Murphy played his career in a lower scoring environment than Franco will. The average batting line was about 50 points of OPS lower than it is now.

by AthertonA on Nov 13, 2005 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

John already did Delmon Young's Crystal Ball.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon

John crystal balled 549 HR's for Delmon Young...

by rhodehead on Nov 13, 2005 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to believe

I find it hard to believe that we can accurately say that anyone's most likely career path involves over 500 (Young) and over 600 homer (Texeira) outcomes...

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not fun

It's not fun to have Crystal Balls in which the player gets a career-ending injury at age 28 or where every player ends up with a conservative .270/300 HR/1800 hits career line. Part of the fun of this is trying to explain why the CB's outcome might happen, or why it may not.

by limozeen on Nov 13, 2005 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: most likely path

I agree. But I think these are just meant to be "a" career path rather than necessarily the "most likely". Some people get pretty emotionally invested in these prospects and would get very vocal if you cast a Ben Grieve-sque projection of their guy. It's not worth this hassle just to be more accurate.

by TINSTAAPP on Nov 13, 2005 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Yeah, nobody is saying this is the most likely career path, or even necessarily a likely career path.

It's guessing. Fun guessing. And, in John's defense, there are several Crystal Balls that aren't overly optimistic. Matt Cain, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy, Wily Mo Pena.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't get me wrong

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, nor am I attempting to say that John's not doing a great job. I'm merely saying that if these projections are designed to be "most likely" outcomes, then I think some of the CBs (Francoeur/Young/Texeira) have been too optimistic. That opinion is, I think, in keeping with the point of these posts - to come up with the best system by which to make future predictions.

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"best system"

There really is no system, because, almost always, the factors that prevent a top prospect from reaching his potential are unpredictable. Injuries, psychological issues, drugs/alcohol, etc.

by Ian Miller on Nov 13, 2005 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tools

Do you think he doesn't have the tools to have a career path such of what John posted?

by smt on Nov 13, 2005 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plate discipline

No - I think he might end up being a Mondesi-type hitter who is held back by his inability to lay off junk...Players like that (Mondesi is a fine example) tend to age very poorly because of their inability to maintain batspeed into their 30s...

Nolan

by Nolan on Nov 13, 2005 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well i like it

give or take a few numbers this is about what i'd project from francoeur...however, with the ability to watch so many of his games on tbs in '05 i've decided i do like his power stroke a lot so it wouldnt surprise me if he peppered 1 or 2 more 39-40 hr campaigns in there...he just pulls the ball out so easily that i can see him going on 2-3 month tears where he capitalizes on any mistake pitch on the inner half

his sb potential has always been a mystery to me and i didnt absolutely love what i saw from him on the basepath this year so im thinking maybe a few 10-15 sb years until he slowly becomes more of a station to station player in his later 20's

by robcast23 on Nov 13, 2005 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nits

I see more avg and speed, as others do, but I also expect more longevity. He's gotten this far with awful plate discipline because he has both a quick bat and great hand-eye coordination. No reason he can't put up a .280 career avg. Not 30 steals as some have said, but say averaging 15 steals his first 5 seasons and then declining. He has the speed to steal 20-30 if he wanted to, but he's got power on a team that traditionally hasn't stolen much. He has a lot of speed to lose in both his bat and his legs, and he's gotten to the bigs early, so why not a 20 year career?

by rlwhite on Nov 13, 2005 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

K/AB ratio

Francoeur's K/AB ratio isn't that much of a red flag to me. He struck out once for every 4.43 ABs in the majors, which is well above the 1/4 ratio that I use as an indicator of danger ahead. Even during his slump he was still better than 1/4, which suggests to me that he's really not all that wild a swinger.

I think he'll settle in as a .280s-range hitter eventually, with .820-.830 range OPS. Preston Wilson with fewer Ks, fewer walks, but more ISO seems reasonable to me.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 14, 2005 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Free swinger

I don't have his pitches per at-bat in front of me, but I recall that the number was quite low.

I think he quite the free swinger, but he just has good enough bat control not to miss when the ball is an inch off the ground. If he were to reign that tendency in and only swing at balls that normal people are supposed to be able to hit, he is certainly capable of surpassing these crystal ball predictions.

But I don't know how likely that is.

by aCone419 on Nov 14, 2005 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs