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Prospect Smackdown: Delmon Young vs. Lastings Milledge

Outfield Smackdown: Delmon Young vs. Lastings Milledge

BACKGROUND and INTANGIBLES
Young: Delmon Young was the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, out of high school in Camarillo, California. He is the younger brother of major leaguer Dmitri Young, and is considered more advanced than Dmitri was at the same age, which is high praise because Dmitri was himself a first-round pick. Delmon has been around the game of baseball since he was a little kid, and is not awed by the pro environment. He is intelligent and confident in his ability, although sometimes this comes across as arrogance. His work ethic is rated as being very good-to-excellent by most, although some scouts don't think he tries very hard on defense.
Milledge: Milledge was drafted by the Mets in the first round in 2003, out of high school in Florida. 12th overall. Like Young, Milledge comes from a baseball family and has a good feel for what professional baseball is all about. Milledge faced an allegation of sexual misconduct in high school, but no charges were ever filed, and he's had no behavior problems as a pro. Like Young, Milledge is intelligent, confident, and has a good work ethic. He hasn't faced the same questions about "arrogance" that Young has.
Advantage: This is about as even as you can get. Both have excellent amateur backgrounds. Both are intelligent and work hard. Young's "arrogance" tag is a difficult thing to substantiate. Milledge may put more effort on defense than Young does, but for now I think we have to call this even.

PHYSICALITY and TOOLS
Young: Young is a very good all-around athlete, with excellent strength and power, decent speed, and a strong throwing arm. Like his brother, he has a tendency to gain weight, and will have to work hard to keep in shape down the road, but so far it hasn't been a problem. He is expected to lose his speed as he matures, even if he keeps his weight under control. He is a Five-Tool player right now, although if he loses his speed that will go down to four tools. His bat is extremely quick.
Milledge: Milledge is an excellent all-around athlete. He doesn't have quite as much pure strength as Young, but his bat may be a hair quicker due to his light-speed wrists, which will help him hit for average. Milledge is faster, leaner, and should have an easier time maintaining his speed. He also has a strong throwing arm. On the other hand, Milledge has been prone to nagging injuries and muscle pulls, and durability may be an issue down the line. Like Young, Milledge is a Five-Tool talent, but has a somewhat better chance to maintain all of those tools in the long run. He will also be a more valuable defensive player in the long run.
Advantage: I think Milledge has a slight edge on physical tools, but it's very close. Does Milledge's advantage in speed outweigh Young's apparent advantage in durability?

PERFORMANCE and SKILLS
Young: In 1071 career at-bats, Young has hit .317 with a .531 SLG. He hit .285/.303/.447 in 52 games in Triple-A at age 19, obviously impressive performance considering his age group and the level of competition. He also stole 32 bases this year. Young can hit for power and average. His main sabermetric flaw right now is a low walk rate and shaky plate discipline, but his strikeout rate is also fairly low, and his bat speed is so good that he's been able to compensate for the willingness to chase bad pitches. With more experience, he should develop all Seven Skills.
Milledge: In 793 career at-bats, Milledge has hit .313 with a .485 SLG. He hit .337/.392/.487 in 48 games of Double-A baseball at age 20, obviously impressive performance considering his age group and the level of competition. He also stole 29 bases this year. Milledge can hit for power and average, but at this point he has less realized power than Young. He also needs to improve his stolen base success ratio. Like Young, Milledge doesn't control the strike zone very well, and his strikeout rate is higher. It hasn't hurt his production yet, but he needs to improve his read on the zone to thrive in the majors. With more experience, he should develop all Seven Skills.
Advantage: There is nothing wrong with Milledge's performance on its own terms, but Young has the advantage here, having played at a higher level at a slightly younger age. Both of them have work to do in the skill category, but I think Young is a bit more refined at this point.

PROJECTION
Young: Given his age, performance, and tools, Young projects as a superstar player, capable of hitting around .300 or higher with lots of power and good speed, at least early in his career. His OBP may be a problem early, but in the long run it should not be an issue. He is the kind of player who might compete for Triple Crowns.
Milledge: Given his age, performance, and tools, Milledge projects as a superstar player, capable of hitting .300 or higher with lots of power and good speed.. His OBP may be a problem early, and he has more work to do in the plate discipline department than Young does. He also doesn't project to hit as many homers. On the other hand, Milledge projects to be a better defensive player.
Advantage: The main advantage that Young has is that he is six months younger than Milledge and should hit for more power. But Milledge is hardly a slouch in the power department, and has better speed. I will go with Young here, but it is very, very close.

OVERALL
Young: Young has very slight advantages in power projection, current performance, and baseball skill level.
Milledge: Milledge has a very slight edge in overall physical tools and defense.
Advantage: On balance, I think that Young comes out a hair ahead of Milledge, but it's a photo finish.

What do you guys and gals think? Poll question in the comments section.

Poll
Who Will Have A Better Career, as measured by things like WARP and Win Shares?
Lastings Milledge
584 votes
Delmon Young
270 votes

854 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 41 comments

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Win-Win Situation
Both teams have superstars-in-the-making with Milledge and Young.

In retrospect, I gotta commend Chuck LaMar for trying to make a deal last year where he'd acquire Milledge and Petit for Lugo, Baez and Huff in that blockbuster 3-way trade.

Luckily for the Mets, they have Omar Minaya at the helm(instead of Duquette). He doesn't trade prospects until they're at the maximum value

by The Rocc on Nov 11, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

best name in baseball
lastings milledge.  i'd give my right arm to be named that.  i'd also consider giving one very prominant LEFT arm to have in the a's system....
"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Nov 11, 2005 2:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He's no
Merkin Valdez or Boof Bonser, though.

by drjayphd on Nov 11, 2005 6:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

chip cannon, anybody?
there's also old favorite milton bradly.

frankly, though, i think the line forms behind coco crisp.

by jpahk on Nov 12, 2005 12:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wes Swackhammer
no this is the best name
#269

by mrmetaa on Nov 12, 2005 8:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Digging deep in the archives
Johnny Dickshot deserves his moment in the sun.  (ahem)

by drjayphd on Nov 12, 2005 4:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crisp
I'm with you on Crisp.
On the other extreme have have guys like Kristen "Yes I have cruel parents, just call me Kris instead" Benson.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 12, 2005 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And....
lets not forget the legendary Stubby Clapp.

by dakar on Nov 13, 2005 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just read Joe Sheehan's...
...piece on the AFL.  He's no scout, but he's also no fan of Milledge.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4601

by Azteca on Nov 11, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hm.
i'm not a subscriber.  i buy their book every year, but would you suggest subscribing instead?
"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Nov 11, 2005 2:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheehan on Milledge
Sheehan basically said that to his scout's eye, which he admits is totally untrained, Milledge seems like a tweener who isn't exceptional in any area or have the speed to actually stay in CF.

Joe's not too shy to give you an unpopular opinion.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Nov 11, 2005 3:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

poll question
I voted for Young, but it really depends on whether Milledge ends up playing CF or not. If he gets traded to a team where he's not blocked by Carlos Beltran, I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up better years (as measured by Win Shares and WARP) in his prime than Young. Although I still think Young will rack up a higher career total.

by jeck on Nov 11, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

power
"Young has very slight advantage in power projection"

Do most agree that Young's power advantage over Milledge is slight? I've always heard Albert Belle production projections related to Young. That would dwarf the power I would think Milledge is capable of.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Nov 11, 2005 3:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I totally agree
I think the difference in power and strength is greatly underestimated.  Young's power could move beyond just a "tool" to an exceptional "tool".  He has the potential for a Sammy Sosa type career with good speed/good power early and then extreme power/little speed.

This is the first time I've ever seen anyone put Milledge in Young's category.  Young is younger and slugged 100 points higher at AA. Frankly, not much on Milledge's stat line jumps off the page.  He must be more impressive in person.

by HuskerBob on Nov 11, 2005 4:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agree
with all your points.

I don't think it's really that close.

by So Cal Bob on Nov 15, 2005 1:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Siblings in MLB
Why does it seem like there are many more siblings in MLB (or almost MLB-ready) than even ten years ago? I have no statistical evidence, but to me it appears as though it's the case.

Some examples:

Marcus and Brian Giles
Andy and Adam Laroche
Justin and B.J. Upton
Stephen and J.D. Drew
Jered and Jeff Weaver
Delmon and Dmitri Young
the three Molinas

I could be missing some more, but even so, it's a rather long list, I'd say.

by mark w on Nov 11, 2005 3:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget...
Tim Drew And the Boones and Madduxes. Well I guess Mike has moved on to bigger and better things.

by aCone419 on Nov 12, 2005 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A few more
Laynce & Jayson Nix
Livan & Orlando Hernandez (Half Brothers)

by colinadam on Nov 12, 2005 11:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Milledge . . .
Being a Mets fan, he's an incredibly intriguing young player, and to be like probably 95% of them, want to see him stay w/the Mets and not be traded for an aging, albeit potent, but mercurial slugger.

With that said, I have no clue how his career will turn out. Even though it is the AFL, and a limited size at that, he showed increased patience and power, and his patience came in the last two weeks, as I think he drew a walk in 4 straight games to close the season out. Plus, his SB% was higher in the AFL. Also, he apparently has an insatiable desire to study hitting. He is frequently at the ball park early to study either his stroke or other players. That dedication, plus the raw natural ability, is why I think he'll surpass John's possible career path outlined a month or so ago on here.

by andwoo on Nov 11, 2005 6:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lastings
I'm not that impressed with Milledge's performance thus far. Average power for an OF and poor plate discipline.

His 2005 looks identical to Hanley Ramirez' 2004 ,for what it's worth.

by FI on Nov 11, 2005 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

power
Power is the last tool to develop. You basically have to trust the scouts.

Sure, you'd love to see more walks, but it's hard to complain about a career line of .313/.385/.485/.870 from a center fielder who's been young for every level he's played at.

by jeck on Nov 11, 2005 7:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can believe the scouts, but...
Power might be the "last to develop", but a good number of 19-20 year old outfielders (including Delmon Young) demonstrated significantly more power than Milledge last year.

by FI on Nov 12, 2005 8:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not a bad comparison
His 2005 looks identical to Hanley Ramirez' 2004 for what it's worth.

A-
.310/.364/.389 17/39 bb/so 13 XBH 239 AB   
.302/.385/.418 19/41 bb/so 19 XBH 232 AB

AA
.310/.360/.512 10/26 bb/so 14 XBH 129 AB
.337/.392/.487 14/47 bb/so 21 XBH 193 AB       

Not a bad comparison, but I think Milledge's was a tad better. Both have somewhat mediocre plate discipline, but Milledge makes up some of that by getting HBPs. Power-wise, I'd give the edge to Milledge, but neither has really developed that tool yet. Average wise, they both look very good. Hanley faltered there this year, will Milledge?

Anyway, although they were similar at age 20, Milledge kills Hanley at age 19. Its not even close. IMHO, Milo is the better prospect.

by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 7:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Milo?
Never heard that nickname for Midge before...

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 11, 2005 8:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think it originated at
www.metsgeek.com
OFF moderates there if i'm not mistaken.

by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 11, 2005 9:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Plate discipline
You say that Young has better plate discipline, but why? Milledge has a higher OBP (.392 in AA)  and a higher isolated discpline (.055 in AA). Young had a .386 OBP in AA, and a .050 isolated discipline in AA.

Is it based on age or some other factor because they both look dead even otherwise.

I haven't seen either player at all, so I'm just basing it off stats.

by Klostrophobic on Nov 11, 2005 8:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Presumption
My guess would be it's based largely on observation by scouts.  Beyond that...
The Southern League (where Young played) is one of the better pitchers' leagues, whereas the Eastern league is more of a hitters league.  Milledge is also slightly older and has been playing pro-ball for longer.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 11, 2005 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

observation
That's by report, the plate discipline thing. Statistically they are very similar as noted by the commentator.

by John Sickels on Nov 11, 2005 9:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Voting results
Im shocked that 2/3 of people have voted for Milledge considering he has never performed up to Youngs standards and Young is generally considered the top hitting prospect in all of baseball. But, then again...Im sure there are alot more NY fans than Tampa fans to skew the voting.

by albbla2000 on Nov 11, 2005 9:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Welll...
Im shocked that 2/3 of people have voted for Milledge considering he has never performed up to Youngs standards

Never say never...

A-
.337/.399/.579 Milledge
.320/.386/.536 Young

   

by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 10:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah
....I will call that a wash considering Lastings was older while playing in A ball, plus Delmon was in his first year of professional baseball when he made it to A.

by albbla2000 on Nov 11, 2005 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A wash?
  1. Sure, Milledge was older, but only by six months. How significant can six months be?
  2. Both Milledge and Young were drafted in 03. Before his season at the SAL, Milledge had amassed 26 ABs. If I'm not mistaken, Milledge had a slight injury in spring training, so I'm not really sure if he had an advantage in terms of playing shape when the season started.
  3. Milledge played better defense, and though his SB% was a tad worse than Young's, he also hit into fewer DPs, and I'm guessing was a better overall baserunner.
I have no problem admitting that right now Young is the better prospect, but by the same token, you should be able to admit that Milledge was better than Delmon in the SAL.

by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 11:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well sure
I dont have to admit he played better at all...the numbers bear that out.

by albbla2000 on Nov 12, 2005 12:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

voting
We just had a huge influx of Mets fans coming over from other blogs. That probably altered the voting.

by John Sickels on Nov 11, 2005 9:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i'm obviously a met fan
but i voted for young. so, its not a knee jerk reaction to go for milledge.

by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 11, 2005 9:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I'm a Mets fan obviously, and I'm pretty impressed with Milledge, but I feel like Young just blows him out of the water.  I can see Reggie Sanders with a bit less power and a better center field for Milledge, whereas Delmon Young looks like he could be a true superstar.  I want to see Milledge hit for more power or draw more walks, I don't see him being more than a very good five or six hitter otherwise.

by MontrealMets on Nov 11, 2005 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Delmon
I voted for Young, too.

Don't imagine too many GMs would take Milledge over Young.

by Mr Met on Nov 15, 2005 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Delmon
I doubt they would...unless they were insane. Young is a far better talent than Milledge.
* July, 06 Beckett Baseball SuperCollector of the Month (Page 4)

by EB31 on Jul 6, 2006 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Milledge
If the Mets give up Milledge, even for Manny, I'd be extremely disappointed.

by samjjones on Nov 15, 2005 3:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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