Prospect Smackdown: Delmon Young vs. Lastings Milledge
Outfield Smackdown: Delmon Young vs. Lastings Milledge
BACKGROUND and INTANGIBLES
Young: Delmon Young was the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, out of high school in Camarillo, California. He is the younger brother of major leaguer Dmitri Young, and is considered more advanced than Dmitri was at the same age, which is high praise because Dmitri was himself a first-round pick. Delmon has been around the game of baseball since he was a little kid, and is not awed by the pro environment. He is intelligent and confident in his ability, although sometimes this comes across as arrogance. His work ethic is rated as being very good-to-excellent by most, although some scouts don't think he tries very hard on defense.
Milledge: Milledge was drafted by the Mets in the first round in 2003, out of high school in Florida. 12th overall. Like Young, Milledge comes from a baseball family and has a good feel for what professional baseball is all about. Milledge faced an allegation of sexual misconduct in high school, but no charges were ever filed, and he's had no behavior problems as a pro. Like Young, Milledge is intelligent, confident, and has a good work ethic. He hasn't faced the same questions about "arrogance" that Young has.
Advantage: This is about as even as you can get. Both have excellent amateur backgrounds. Both are intelligent and work hard. Young's "arrogance" tag is a difficult thing to substantiate. Milledge may put more effort on defense than Young does, but for now I think we have to call this even.
PHYSICALITY and TOOLS
Young: Young is a very good all-around athlete, with excellent strength and power, decent speed, and a strong throwing arm. Like his brother, he has a tendency to gain weight, and will have to work hard to keep in shape down the road, but so far it hasn't been a problem. He is expected to lose his speed as he matures, even if he keeps his weight under control. He is a Five-Tool player right now, although if he loses his speed that will go down to four tools. His bat is extremely quick.
Milledge: Milledge is an excellent all-around athlete. He doesn't have quite as much pure strength as Young, but his bat may be a hair quicker due to his light-speed wrists, which will help him hit for average. Milledge is faster, leaner, and should have an easier time maintaining his speed. He also has a strong throwing arm. On the other hand, Milledge has been prone to nagging injuries and muscle pulls, and durability may be an issue down the line. Like Young, Milledge is a Five-Tool talent, but has a somewhat better chance to maintain all of those tools in the long run. He will also be a more valuable defensive player in the long run.
Advantage: I think Milledge has a slight edge on physical tools, but it's very close. Does Milledge's advantage in speed outweigh Young's apparent advantage in durability?
PERFORMANCE and SKILLS
Young: In 1071 career at-bats, Young has hit .317 with a .531 SLG. He hit .285/.303/.447 in 52 games in Triple-A at age 19, obviously impressive performance considering his age group and the level of competition. He also stole 32 bases this year. Young can hit for power and average. His main sabermetric flaw right now is a low walk rate and shaky plate discipline, but his strikeout rate is also fairly low, and his bat speed is so good that he's been able to compensate for the willingness to chase bad pitches. With more experience, he should develop all Seven Skills.
Milledge: In 793 career at-bats, Milledge has hit .313 with a .485 SLG. He hit .337/.392/.487 in 48 games of Double-A baseball at age 20, obviously impressive performance considering his age group and the level of competition. He also stole 29 bases this year. Milledge can hit for power and average, but at this point he has less realized power than Young. He also needs to improve his stolen base success ratio. Like Young, Milledge doesn't control the strike zone very well, and his strikeout rate is higher. It hasn't hurt his production yet, but he needs to improve his read on the zone to thrive in the majors. With more experience, he should develop all Seven Skills.
Advantage: There is nothing wrong with Milledge's performance on its own terms, but Young has the advantage here, having played at a higher level at a slightly younger age. Both of them have work to do in the skill category, but I think Young is a bit more refined at this point.
PROJECTION
Young: Given his age, performance, and tools, Young projects as a superstar player, capable of hitting around .300 or higher with lots of power and good speed, at least early in his career. His OBP may be a problem early, but in the long run it should not be an issue. He is the kind of player who might compete for Triple Crowns.
Milledge: Given his age, performance, and tools, Milledge projects as a superstar player, capable of hitting .300 or higher with lots of power and good speed.. His OBP may be a problem early, and he has more work to do in the plate discipline department than Young does. He also doesn't project to hit as many homers. On the other hand, Milledge projects to be a better defensive player.
Advantage: The main advantage that Young has is that he is six months younger than Milledge and should hit for more power. But Milledge is hardly a slouch in the power department, and has better speed. I will go with Young here, but it is very, very close.
OVERALL
Young: Young has very slight advantages in power projection, current performance, and baseball skill level.
Milledge: Milledge has a very slight edge in overall physical tools and defense.
Advantage: On balance, I think that Young comes out a hair ahead of Milledge, but it's a photo finish.
What do you guys and gals think? Poll question in the comments section.
0 recs |
41 comments
Comments
Win-Win Situation
In retrospect, I gotta commend Chuck LaMar for trying to make a deal last year where he'd acquire Milledge and Petit for Lugo, Baez and Huff in that blockbuster 3-way trade.
Luckily for the Mets, they have Omar Minaya at the helm(instead of Duquette). He doesn't trade prospects until they're at the maximum value
by The Rocc on Nov 11, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
best name in baseball
by D O on Nov 11, 2005 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's no
by drjayphd on Nov 11, 2005 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
chip cannon, anybody?
frankly, though, i think the line forms behind coco crisp.
by jpahk on Nov 12, 2005 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wes Swackhammer
by mrmetaa on Nov 12, 2005 8:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Digging deep in the archives
by drjayphd on Nov 12, 2005 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp
On the other extreme have have guys like Kristen "Yes I have cruel parents, just call me Kris instead" Benson.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 12, 2005 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And....
by dakar on Nov 13, 2005 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just read Joe Sheehan's...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4601
by Azteca on Nov 11, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
hm.
by D O on Nov 11, 2005 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheehan on Milledge
Joe's not too shy to give you an unpopular opinion.
by natsfan2005 on Nov 11, 2005 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
poll question
by jeck on Nov 11, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
power
Do most agree that Young's power advantage over Milledge is slight? I've always heard Albert Belle production projections related to Young. That would dwarf the power I would think Milledge is capable of.
by natsfan2005 on Nov 11, 2005 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree
This is the first time I've ever seen anyone put Milledge in Young's category. Young is younger and slugged 100 points higher at AA. Frankly, not much on Milledge's stat line jumps off the page. He must be more impressive in person.
by HuskerBob on Nov 11, 2005 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agree
I don't think it's really that close.
by So Cal Bob on Nov 15, 2005 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Siblings in MLB
Some examples:
Marcus and Brian Giles
Andy and Adam Laroche
Justin and B.J. Upton
Stephen and J.D. Drew
Jered and Jeff Weaver
Delmon and Dmitri Young
the three Molinas
I could be missing some more, but even so, it's a rather long list, I'd say.
by mark w on Nov 11, 2005 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget...
by aCone419 on Nov 12, 2005 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few more
Livan & Orlando Hernandez (Half Brothers)
by colinadam on Nov 12, 2005 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Milledge . . .
With that said, I have no clue how his career will turn out. Even though it is the AFL, and a limited size at that, he showed increased patience and power, and his patience came in the last two weeks, as I think he drew a walk in 4 straight games to close the season out. Plus, his SB% was higher in the AFL. Also, he apparently has an insatiable desire to study hitting. He is frequently at the ball park early to study either his stroke or other players. That dedication, plus the raw natural ability, is why I think he'll surpass John's possible career path outlined a month or so ago on here.
by andwoo on Nov 11, 2005 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lastings
His 2005 looks identical to Hanley Ramirez' 2004 ,for what it's worth.
by FI on Nov 11, 2005 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
power
Sure, you'd love to see more walks, but it's hard to complain about a career line of .313/.385/.485/.870 from a center fielder who's been young for every level he's played at.
by jeck on Nov 11, 2005 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can believe the scouts, but...
by FI on Nov 12, 2005 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not a bad comparison
A-
.310/.364/.389 17/39 bb/so 13 XBH 239 AB
.302/.385/.418 19/41 bb/so 19 XBH 232 AB
AA
.310/.360/.512 10/26 bb/so 14 XBH 129 AB
.337/.392/.487 14/47 bb/so 21 XBH 193 AB
Not a bad comparison, but I think Milledge's was a tad better. Both have somewhat mediocre plate discipline, but Milledge makes up some of that by getting HBPs. Power-wise, I'd give the edge to Milledge, but neither has really developed that tool yet. Average wise, they both look very good. Hanley faltered there this year, will Milledge?
Anyway, although they were similar at age 20, Milledge kills Hanley at age 19. Its not even close. IMHO, Milo is the better prospect.
by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 7:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Milo?
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 11, 2005 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think it originated at
OFF moderates there if i'm not mistaken.
by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 11, 2005 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. Descendents-inspired.
by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plate discipline
Is it based on age or some other factor because they both look dead even otherwise.
I haven't seen either player at all, so I'm just basing it off stats.
by Klostrophobic on Nov 11, 2005 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Presumption
The Southern League (where Young played) is one of the better pitchers' leagues, whereas the Eastern league is more of a hitters league. Milledge is also slightly older and has been playing pro-ball for longer.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 11, 2005 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
observation
by John Sickels on Nov 11, 2005 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Voting results
by albbla2000 on Nov 11, 2005 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Welll...
Never say never...
A-
.337/.399/.579 Milledge
.320/.386/.536 Young
by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by albbla2000 on Nov 11, 2005 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A wash?
- Sure, Milledge was older, but only by six months. How significant can six months be?
- Both Milledge and Young were drafted in 03. Before his season at the SAL, Milledge had amassed 26 ABs. If I'm not mistaken, Milledge had a slight injury in spring training, so I'm not really sure if he had an advantage in terms of playing shape when the season started.
- Milledge played better defense, and though his SB% was a tad worse than Young's, he also hit into fewer DPs, and I'm guessing was a better overall baserunner.
by OFF on Nov 11, 2005 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well sure
by albbla2000 on Nov 12, 2005 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
voting
by John Sickels on Nov 11, 2005 9:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'm obviously a met fan
by DavidWrightismyGod on Nov 11, 2005 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by MontrealMets on Nov 11, 2005 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Delmon
Don't imagine too many GMs would take Milledge over Young.
by Mr Met on Nov 15, 2005 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Delmon
by EB31 on Jul 6, 2006 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milledge
by samjjones on Nov 15, 2005 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
in my opinion
by Isisaston on Dec 20, 2006 2:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs










