Chad Tracy

by roaddog on Oct 4, 2005 11:12 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

The talk about Jim Tracy sparked my interest a little in Chad Tracy.

Only 25, he's now been in the league 2 years. In the minors, he showed the ability to hit for great average, good eye-OBP-bb/k rate. Little raw power but good doubles. His year this year is nice with 27 homers (911 OPS).

What's the prognosis for the future? I'd have to go with maybe a few good years at 35 homers with a pretty steady 25-28 with 33 doubles with around 300 average and 870-900 OPS, some spikes at a little over 900 (similar to this year). That'd be pretty good. Not awesome for a non-great defense 1b. On a team where he could fill in for the rare OF or 3b, a good addition. Maybe with the White Sox or Seattle (though the numbers would drop) at some point?

Too optimistic or not optimistic enough? Maybe a CB or prospect retro candidate.

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I've been raving about him on the Jays Boards

I'd love for them to get him, Sky Dome is a much better hitters park and AZ is going to have no room with Quentin and Jackson looking for spots.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Oct 5, 2005 1:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, you can't have him!

If the D'backs don't want Chad Tracy, I'd be more than happy for the Giants to take him off their hands and make him their first baseman for the next 10 years.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 5, 2005 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade?

Why would the D'Backs trade away Chad Tracy? He's young. He's good. He's cheap. They'd be much better off moving Quentin or Jackson, as they probably get more (based on hype) than they would for Tracy. Let's be real though. What the D'backs need to do is move Green or Gonzalez, or both. Good luck with all that.

by rwperu34 on Oct 5, 2005 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just Kidding

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 5, 2005 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

Too the posts above:

First, BOB/Chase is the 2nd highest altitude of any park not named Coors. Skydome is definately NOT a better hitters park. BOB has turned numerous mediocre power hitters into sluggers over the years, I can't say the same about Skydome.

Second, there is no way in a snowball's chance that the Dbacks would trade Tracy to a division rival. I think the Giants would have a better chance at prying away Ryan Howard from the Phills (still not very good) than getting Tracy.

Okay, as far as Tracy goes; I got to see him play numerous times over the past two seasons and he is a good hitter, I'd say in the mold of Shea Hillenbrandt with more power and from the left side. He, unfortunately, also like Hillenbrandt, is below average defensively. Part of that is because the Dbacks keep yanking him around and have him move positions every few months (3b to Lf to 1b to Rf in the last 16 months). I'd think that for his limited set of defensive tools his best place on the field is 1b or Lf. I'm not sure he'll be the power source some of you project (no way he is a 35 hr guy), so I think 1b is out long term. That leaves Lf, where a guy that hits .300+ with 20+ homers is a solid fit.

I'd love to see the Dbacks keep him, but they have a huge logjam at all of Tracy's positions. 1b they have Clark and Jackson in the waiting. Lf/Rf they have Green/Gonzalez with Quinton waiting. 3b they have Glaus tied up longterm with Santos waiting.

Its a nice dilema to have. I'd personally trade one of the vets first (Gonzo, Green- but no one would take them). If they can't do that, I'd trade either Quinton or Jackson. They'd fetch a top of the line pitching prospect and they are still unproven in the bigs while Tracu has shown what he can do.

by ScottAZ on Oct 5, 2005 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

limitations...

C. Tracy's stats (power) are a little more than projected to date. I have a concern with his walk rate going forward. While posting decent numbers in the minors his 35 BB's in 503 ab's is not good. Also appears he is on his way to being a platoon player (still early on that) as his numbers this season do not look good versus lhp. I agree with ScottAZ, around 25 HR (with 30-40 2B'S) appears to be what to expect.

I say find this guy a solid place to play (either in AZ or not) and let him rake...

by klmstrat on Oct 5, 2005 1:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lyle Overbay

They're the same guy, pretty much.

Don't forget that he was platooning with Tony Clark at first most of the season. I think his numbers would go down if he was playing the whole year.

by Ian Miller on Oct 5, 2005 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Platoon?

It wasn't a straight platoon. Tracy played 80 games at 1B, but he played 50 games in the OF too. He ended up with 500+ AB's. I don't see how you can say his numbers would go down if he was a full timer because he practically was.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 5, 2005 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

corrected

Didn't realize he'd gotten that many AB's in the outfield.

He still got about 100 fewer at bats than he would have as a full-timer, though. I'll be curious to see what he does next season.

by Ian Miller on Oct 5, 2005 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Skydome

The BOB may be a hitters park, but he also had to play about 50 games in PETCO, Dodger Stadium, and in San Fran. And Skydome is a place a 38 year old Canseco could hit 40 HRs.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Oct 5, 2005 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Should have included this

According to ESPN Ballpark factor, Rogers Center (read Sky Dome) is the 4th best hitters park in baseball, and the BOB, is 9th.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Oct 5, 2005 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

after reviewing the ESPN factors

BOB higher in HRs, 3Bs while Skydome is higher in 2Bs.

What is interesting is that BB factor for BOB this year. Ultra low. Questec? Random chance. Well, if the BB factor was neutral I would venture to guess the BOB would be a better run scoring environment than Skydome this year as is the case most years. That said, Skydome has annually been a good hitters park (esp for RH power), but the BOB is practically Coors-lite.

by natsfan2005 on Oct 5, 2005 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm....

Each time I click on a sort category, I get a completely different set of numbers. I had it tell me that the HR factor at the BOB ranged from about 1.1 to 0.99 to 0.48. Also likes to tell me once in a while that the HR factor at Minute Maid Park is 0.62.

Probably just an indication that my java needs updating, but I'd prefer a more functionally reliable source....

-tmt

by Tom Talavage on Oct 7, 2005 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

odd

you're so right...
the #s on that page are unreliable. Everytime I sort they change... heck... they default sorted by runs #s have changed since yesterday even though the regular season has been over for days...

by natsfan2005 on Oct 7, 2005 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did a little

checking

He had 9 HR at Chase and 18 away. AB and Games were essentially the same for home and away. Had 4 homers at Chavez Ravine, 3 at Petco and 3 at SBC...all 'pitchers parks' (more combined than at the home 'hitters' park). Small sample size, but interesting anyway. Maybe his power is starting to show through. His v. lefty split isn't very good .72x but is .160 better than last year so he's improving for sure. Not sure he'll be relegated to a platoon. If he is, may not be all that bad anyway (.900+ v righty).

Think maybe an Overbay comp would be on the low end of his potential and pretty sure my spike of 35 hr projection would be optimistic end. Probably something in between. I think the Snakes will trade him in a move similar to the Sexson deal at some point, but not sure when.

Still pretty young with a bright future anyway.

by roaddog on Oct 5, 2005 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Logjam

As was pointed out earlier, the D'backs have a developing logjam as they are going to have to find places for Conor Jackson and Carlos Quinton soon. They can both probably start out at AAA next year, but if they continue to progress, they'll be knocking on the door by midseason. It would seem like somebody is going to get traded for pitching.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 5, 2005 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs