thoughts on these young guys for '06?

by rhodehead on Oct 31, 2005 11:10 AM EST

I am in a 20 team keeper league and i thought this would be as good a place as any to get thoughts on these guys for 2006 and beyond. Who stands out among these guys as having the most fantasy potential? All these guys are on the cheap for next year (except Upton), but unfortunately, I can't keep all of them.

1b Justin Huber - Playing time? Does have have enough power to be a reliable fantasy 1b?

1b Ryan Shealy - Helton. Will he produce big numbers outside of Colorado if traded?

SS BJ Upton - the million dollar question, does he have a gig in Tampa to start '06 (or anytime in '06), and if so what position?

RP Rafael Soriano - Mariners next closer? How does he look since his return from TJ - 2003 form?

RP Fernando Cabrera - Indians next closer? When?

RP/SP Aaron Heilman - I have a feeling he will be dealt, but does he end up in the rotation or the pen and will he have a (fantasy) impact?

RP Ryan Madson - Will the Phillies let him close?

Many offseason moves in real baseball could answer some of these fantasy baseball questions, but i am not afforded that luxury. Lists must be submitted in a couple weeks. Any thoughts on any of these players would be greatly appreciated. thanks!

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My thoughts

Huber -- Not sure about the playing time. Depends what they do with Sweeny, how much they love Harvey, and how fast Butler(or maybe Gordon) moves. If he does get to play full-time, he'll probably be productive but not top-tier. .260-.270 with 30 homers, and about 35 RBI since he's a Royal ;)

Shealy -- Hard to say, since he's played in mostly hitters' leagues so far. Thus, he might have a bit of an adjustment period if he ends up away from altitude. Wild guess here -- similar production as Huber, with a bit more power(even taking context into consideration, his minor league ISOs are pretty huge) and perhaps a somewhat lower overall average if he begins with an extended slump.

Upton -- depends on who the GM is. If it's a statistical guy(DePodesta...?), Lugo and/or Cantu either switch positions or are traded to accomodate Upton at short, probably right out of Spring Training but at the latest by June. If it's more of a traditionalist, he probably goes back down to keep working on his defense(hopefully at short, but perhaps at third or CF), though barring an injury there's no (sane) way to justify keeping him down past the All-Star break.

Soriano as closer -- could very well happen. Is Guardado still around? If he is, Soriano's in line for the job whenever he's dumped. If he's not, they might dig someone up to hold the job for a few months until they're sure Soriano's arm will hold together. I didn't see him pitch this year, but the numbers were quite good -- just what it looked like he'd be able to do. However, it was all of 6.7 innings, so take that for what it's worth. A return to the rotation is not unthinkable either, though the Seattle managers may decide that he's too fragile to do more than spot-start.

Heilman -- I think he'll be dealt to a team that'll put him in the rotation. He could be an average ML starter, perhaps a tick above, which has some fantasy value. ERA ~4.25, k/9 between 6 and 7, relatively few walks for a decent WHIP would be my guess.

Madson -- Perhaps even better: the Phillies will probably let him start. If he fails miserably he'll probably go back to the bullpen, but I don't think he'll close this year. They need a starter and he looks like he could be a pretty good one. Even if they trade Wagner, someone else(Tejeda?) probably gets the closer job first. I think Madson would be above average as a starter, ERA ~3.75, k/9 about 7, whip about 1.3.

[I haven't predicted IP and Win totals for the pitchers because there are still too many unknowns about their situations to make a decent guess]

by delomir on Oct 31, 2005 12:25 PM EST reply actions

Huber

Huber will get playing time. The Royals are converting Butler to LF and Harvey is parked in Omaha. Huber is going into camp with the starting 1B job. I don't think he'll hit 30 HR, but I agree completely that he will be productive while not top tier.

by count sutton on Oct 31, 2005 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Huber's 30 Homers

It's on the highish side, but I like to guess in round numbers acknowledging some error. I suppose 25-30 might be a better prediction.

However, my prediction is actually .200 ISO power -- he's been well over that his last two years in the minors. I just converted that into homers to make it a more fantasy relevant number. If he gets 600 AB and hits between .260 and .270(I used .267) with a slugging percentage of .467, this corresponds to 30 doubles, 0 triples, and 30 homers. Perhaps he won't end up with quite so even a distribution, but he could well hit for a higher average or ISO, so I don't think 30 is out of line. If he plays every day and doesn't get hurt, it'll be over 20 for sure.

by delomir on Nov 1, 2005 1:31 AM EST up reply actions

Cabrera

Doubtful that he will be the closer. Wedge seemed happy with a veteran moxie guy in that role.
Cabrera was really tough in those middle inning, long relief appearances last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him rack up about 80 innings in 50 or so appearances kinda like what Madson has done. Only better, cuz he strikes out a lot more guys.
That doesn't do a whole lot for your fantasy team, but a lot for the Tribe.

by doubledribble @ Minor League Ball on Oct 31, 2005 1:04 PM EST reply actions

Soriano

Looked really good at the end of the season. his velocity was a bit down (only 95-96) but the hitters just looked lost against him.

by duder on Oct 31, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions

Options

What is Soriano's option status? I know he was called up in 2002.

by FredUD on Oct 31, 2005 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

Fantasy wise?

IN 2006 I love Upton. (I think he is vastly overrated in real-life, as long as he is at SS. as he will be such a detrimate deffensively to that young staff.)

Also Heilman presuming he is a starter will be a solid guy.

The rest are big gambles in terms of playing time.

by novaoakland on Oct 31, 2005 6:53 PM EST reply actions

Shealy

Can not resist an opportunity to say I think Shealy is the real deal and that COL is actually doing a good job with his development. I am a big believer in (huge overgeneralization to follow) waiting on power hitters for as long as possible before bringing them up. say this froma small market size in terms of getting bang for your buck.

by novaoakland on Oct 31, 2005 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

...about Shealy...

I know Pecota was big on him coming into 2005, and he had a nice callup to the bigs. What stands out in his resume for me, though, is his record of playing in extreme-hitter's environments. In 2005, he played in Co. Springs (a much, much better hitter's park than in Denver), in 04 he was in a fairly neutral Texas League, but in 03 he was in the Cal. League. If he gets a chance (away from Helton's realm), he'll hit a little, but probably more like .260/.340/.460 than the .300/.400/.500 that his #s superficially indicate.

by Azteca on Nov 1, 2005 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

I;ll take a mild improvement over his road stats

2005 on the road--269-356--423

he geta a chance to play everyday with mild increases he should go 280-370-450 which is darn good.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

Forget Upton

the D-rays just made a really really dumb decision.
4.95 million to Lugo.

That is friggin stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by novaoakland on Oct 31, 2005 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

Stupid?

Lugo was really good. If I'm not mistaken he had the second or third highest VORP in team history. Here is an article from raysbaseball.com, scroll down a little, it talks about Lugo. Jim said it better than I could have. He is a good player, better than most of the SS in the league.

Link:
http://www.raysbaseball.com/JW-2005Review3.shtml

Chuck Lamar, you're fired- Stuart Sternburg

by Tyler on Oct 31, 2005 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

2 million and no Upton makes sense

4.95 with upton waiting makes less.

He is not a top 10 SS by most measures.(9th in OPS last year but Crosby and Nomar did not qualify.)
Rich Aurilla also had better OPS.

My point is just that they drastically overpaid for a guy no one else wanted. Not many teams want a wife beater, who if al things go well have a 400 SLUGing.

Now much of this back if Upton is moved to OF this offseason, but I just do not think that is the plan.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

I LOVE BJ Upton

I think he's going to be amazing, but at this point, he still can't field. You can't run him out there making 40-50 errors a year and crush their already weak starting staff. Kazmir's arm might fall off if he has to pitch with the current Bossman fielding behind him.

I think he needs to stay at SS, but he has to get better fielding. Also, exercising Lugo's option show the fan base that you're committed to winning. Releasing him would not have been a good PR move for the new ownership. He will almost certainly be traded or have to switch positions at some point to make room for Bossman, but, it was the right decision for the here and now. It's only 5 mil, and one year, it really isn't overpaying signifigantly. I can think of a lot less productive players who made a whole lot more than him.

Chuck Lamar, you're fired- Stuart Sternburg

by Tyler on Nov 1, 2005 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

How do you pay

a barely average SS 13% of your salary.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

Heilman

Heilman is underrated as a starter. He's my candidate for next year's John Patterson Breakout Starter Award if he gets a rotation spot.

by limozeen on Oct 31, 2005 6:57 PM EST reply actions

Zito for Lasting and Heilman

I would be so happy I just might cry!!

by novaoakland on Oct 31, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

No rentals please!

If Beane gave the Mets a chance to negotiate an extension before that deal maybe, but no way for a possible one year rental. I don't see Omar risking that...

by MetfanBren on Oct 31, 2005 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Omar is under pressure

Not from the smart NYM fans, as you are,but the media, nothing would surprise me.

I do like the Idea of letting NYM or dodgers negotiate a deal in advance to up his value.

by novaoakland on Oct 31, 2005 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

True...

I think Omar plays the media a lot more than vice-versa, but point taken. He still hasn't given anyone up for any major acquisitions, but the media still insists that he's obsessed with big name players. I'm starting to think that half the rumors are designed more to keep the Mets in the papers than anything else. At the least he's shown that he's not going to try and make a splash just for the hell of it, and that's a welcome change of pace for any Met fan...

Many people believe he's more obsessed with creating a foundation for a long run, and hopefully they're right. That kind of thing just doesn't sell papers like Manny does though...

by MetfanBren on Oct 31, 2005 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Not an Omar fan

As good as Pedro was I still laugh at that deal through 2008.Benson was another ouch in my book and Beltran... well time will tell but they overpaid.

Now all that said he did not trade a prospect but did give up quite a few draft picks for those FA's, and Pelfrey is still not signed (f BORAS!!)

Anyway I guess none of this indicates he will sell the farm to win but if he does not I do not see the FA market alone letting them catch the competitive AL East.

It may not be lastings but Petit or another couple elite prospects will have to be moved if they are going to dethron the Braves.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

Hard to say

It's hard to say they overpaid for Beltran. Anyone can get injured and have a crappy season, even the biggest stars in the game. Beltran is still a top-10 talent.

by limozeen on Nov 1, 2005 12:32 AM EST up reply actions

top 10 talent huh?

Well maybe talent but I have not seen it on the field consistently.

2005 you write off to injury Ok but..
2004 not top 20 in OPS (even playing in inflated HOU for half the season)

He has potential and plays solid D but not convinced he is a top 10 talent and he is payed like one.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Wait a Second

Inflated Houston? Houston plays as a Pitcher's park, not a hitter's park. It's one of the better parks for homeruns, but overall runs are scarcer to come by there. Maybe you got your parks mixed up, looks like you were up posting late.
The fact that beltran adjusted so well to a midseason league switch is pretty impressive. A lot of guys struggle with that.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 1, 2005 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

His numbers

were Hr inflated while in Houston. That makes it a hitters park to me.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

Fortuntely, there's more to hitting than HR's.
Oh, it also bears mentioning that Beltran hit 23 HR's in his time with the Astros, 7 at Minutemaid Park, 16 on the road. He hit VERY poorly at Minutemaid, it didn't inflate anything, if anything it hurt him. You're wrong.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 1, 2005 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

presuming your stats are correct good point.

Either way he was not 20 in OPS in 2004, and has not shown me that he can take it to the next level of being a top 10 player he is being payed like.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Good thing OPS is the only relevant value marker

and not things like position played, defense, baserunning.

Let's say next year Giambi has an OPS of 980 and Beltran 950. Would you rather have Giambi?

by Shadow of Bob Kearney on Nov 1, 2005 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I will give a 30 point split

bewteen a CF and a 1B.
But not much more.

I am giving everyone alot ignoring how horrible he was in 2005.

Again though just looking at 2004 he was not top 10 even taking out Giambi/.

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2005 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Stats

I'm not 100% certain on them since I was checking ESPN.com and they wouldn't let me view his 2004 splits (what an unbelievably crappy site). However, he has hit 7Hr's in the last three years at minutemaid (none this season) and hit 23 total last season for the 'Stros so I think it's a pretty safe bet.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 1, 2005 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Thoughts on Cabrera...

Hello rhodehead,

I agree with doubledribble - it's doubtful that Cabrera will become the closer this year, UNLESS no one steps effectively into the role in the early part of 2006. Then, it's possible that Cabrera could become the closer in the 2nd half of 2006. More likely though, I think 2007 is the year he becomes the closer. The Indians don't want to put that much pressure on him this early in his career when the Indians are making a playoff push. However, I certainly think he could be a good to great setup man in 2006, and one that is used more often than not if he pitches like he did last year. (This is presuming that Wickman is not resigned and Howry is and becomes the new closer. If Wickman returns, then it depends on how he does, but I think he was fortunate to only blow 4-5 saves this year; only 4-5 of his saves this year were routine, 1-2-3 type ninth innings. I'm not sure he'll duplicate that success next year if he returns.)

Cabrera is the one I know the most about; just some random thoughts on the others:

Huber - didn't look that great in limited playing time at the end of last year - seemed his swing was long - depends on how quickly he adjusts to the Majors, but it may take some time for him, so I'm not sure he'll hit 30 HRs this year - 15-20 HRs may be more realistic.

Shealy - I'd be concerned because of the hitters' parks he's played in. Plus, many of the Rockies struggle on the road - I have a feeling Shealy will have similar problems on the road as well, which will reduce his overall numbers.

Upton - I'm not sure Tampa Bay will play him in 2006 - probably at some point they will, but don't know if any possible position changes or defensive struggles will affect his bat or not - I think it will take some time for him to adjust as well - a decent year in 2006, but I wouldn't expect huge numbers.

Soriano - I heard that his velocity was down and he wasn't quite as dominant, but he did come back from TJ and it usually takes a pitcher 12-18 months before they feel the same again. I think he will do pretty well this year and get stronger as the year goes along.

Cabrera - see above.

Heilman - has looked good out of the bullpen, but not as consistent as a starter. I think it depends on what role he is used in - personally, I think he'll do better as a reliever/spot starter, than as a regular starter. Plus, if he is traded to an American League team, I don't know how well he will handle it - facing NL lineups may have helped him achieve some success. I would be weary on whether he is traded or not, as well as what role he is used in.

Madson - not as familiar with him - as far as I know, he has pitched well for the Phillies out of the bullpen for the most part. Being that the Phillies are still thinking they have to win now, I doubt he will be the closer, even if Wagner is traded. I think they would want someone who is experienced in the closer's role before inserting Madson in the role. I think he may be a good to great setup guy out of the bullpen or possibly a good back-of-the-rotation starter. He'll probably put up good to great setup guy numbers and good back-of-the-rotation numbers.

Just my 2 cents on all of them - Cabrera is the one I know the most about so consider that information to be the most accurate.

I hope this helps - take care and have a great day!

by indiansfan on Nov 1, 2005 12:46 AM EST reply actions

thanks

for all the replies, definitely more to think about now...I was thinking that Soriano/Cabrera will be cheap set up men this year and eventually become cheap closers.

I would be very interested to see what happens to Heilman and Madson, especially if they are put in the rotation...

thanks again!

by rhodehead on Nov 1, 2005 4:28 PM EST reply actions