kirk saarloos question

I expect that the A's would be happy if he could repeat his performance again.  He could still be improving, since he is only 26 and he was rushed to the majors way too fast.  He was starting in the majors a year after being drafted after only 130 innings in the minors.  In hindsight, that was a very foolish decision to the detriment of his progress.

I think he will have a significant career in the majors performing at or near a 4 ERA.  He could continue to be one of the better 4/5 starters in baseball.

His WHIP and K rate weren't pretty, but he pitched pretty sucessfully last year.  I think he definitely will increase his K rate, but I don't think it will ever be much above league average in the majors.

Below are his career stats:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/kirk-saarloos.shtml

Decent ERA, but more hits than innings pitched and a low K rate don't point toward continued improvement next year.  I wouldn't get my hopes too high.

"are we looking at a breakout season in 06?"

I think you just saw his break out season. It doesn't get much better than this.

I can not find it but I swear he did.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/8/5/13955/88493

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/8/5/13955/88493

saarloos was definitely rushed to the majors, reaching the bigs faster than any other 2001 draftee including mark prior. and on his first pass through A and AA, saarloos dominated, but he struggled in the bigs and also when he was sent back down to the minors for parts of 2003 and 2004--not as much as he had in the majors, but definitely nothing like when he blew through the minors in 2001-02.

basically, you have a guy who was too good for AA, but has less than 100 innings of AAA (and those 100 innings are only okay) and has now been pretty mediocre, rate-wise, in the majors. the crazy thing is what's happened to his strikeout rate as he's moved up: 11.74 K/9 in A, 8.86 in AA, 6.47 in AAA, and 4.52 in the majors, including a ridiculous 2.99 this season. you can tell by watching him, too, that he just doesn't trust his stuff to get hitters out--and he's right. he's usually behind in the count and can't get people to swing and miss. his GB rate is good, but i think his ERA is definitely unsustainable given his alarming propensity to give up baserunners.

then again, i think his low K rate is also unsustainable and will probably bounce back next year to something like 4 or 5 per 9 innings. but in many ways it doesn't matter; juan cruz actually has dominated AAA and has had success in the majors (though who knows what was wrong with him this year) and joe kennedy, who was rushed even more than saarloos, is also a more viable option for the 5th starter's spot.

When a penny stock hits a dollar do you sit and wonder if it will go to $1.25?

This is a classic case of buying very low and selling at its highest point.

Saaraloos will bounce around the majors for a couple of years, but this is about as good as it gets.

I remember that writers used to compare Saarloos the prospect to Greg Maddux as Saarloos was coming up. Hopefully Greinke isn't the same kind of story.

He only has about a year and a half worth of innings, so he is definitely still getting used to the league.  A 26 year old with 320 major league innings could and should definitely improve.  The Maddux thing isn't going to happen, but his stats could improve long-term.  It is silly to think he can't get better, but he could very well also have a sophmorish slump next year.  A team should be more than satisfied to a have a guy like that be their fifth starter.

He's 26.

If the opposite was true long-term nobody would care about any prospect because the major league players would "get used to" these guys eventually and they would get less effective the older they get.

But that is the case with pitchers that have obscenely weak strike out rates.

 Kelvim Escobar was on the DL 3 times this year for bone spurs in his elbow and missed 3 months after the surgery. When he came back, he wasn't back in the rotation. Looks like it can be major surgery, but I'm not sure if Saarloos's bone spurs were as bas as Escobar's.

Is strikeout rate everything?  No, he'll probably never be a dominant pitcher in the mold of Pedro, Roger, Randy, Curt, Johan, Prior, Felix and such.  But he gets groundballs at a 2.32 rate, which would have been good for 7th in baseball if he had qualified.  That enables him to give up only a 391 Slugging against, even though his BAA was 278.  He has some special skill working for him.

Looking at his walk rate of 3.02/9, I'd say he has some room to get better.  He showed a lot better control in the minors and after a full season of starting, he may not be as fazed by major league hitters.  

He's the type of pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, gets double plays and requires a string of hits to score runs off of.  Just getting runners from walks off the bases should drop his ERA into the mid to high 3s, making him a 3-4 starter depending on innings pitched.